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Title (Primary) Simulation-based investigation of ASF spread and control in wildlife without consideration of human non-compliance to biosecurity. External scientific report
Author Thulke, H.-H.; Lange, M.;
Journal EFSA Supporting Publications
Year 2017
Department OESA;
Volume 14
Issue 11
Language englisch;
POF III (all) T11;
Keywords African Swine Fever; individual-based; spatial-temporal simulation; control measures; hunting; carcass removal; wild boar
UFZ wide themes RU5;
Abstract African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of domestic pigs and wild boar. ASFV has spread in EU member states after entry through the eastern EU border. The objective of this assignment was to evaluate the ASF control measures that would be applied if the epidemic had already established along a large front rather than newly emerging foci; and whether EFSA’s conclusions of 2015 regarding wild boar management options are still pertinent. A spatially-explicit individual-based simulation model was run on a 400x100km habitat landscape. The evaluated tools were population reduction measures and removal of carcasses. Alternative scenarios were modelled regarding timing of contacts of wild boar with carcasses and carcass removal. The simulated measures were applied with different levels of effectiveness upfront or within the ASF-affected part of the simulation landscape. The outcome considered was the eradication success. Additionally, the temporal ASF invasion into the control part was recorded by distance for all parameter combinations. The results indicated that single measures will be effective if applied very intensively, i.e. at or beyond the efficacy limits reported from the field. Measures were only effective if applied preventively, i.e. sufficiently far into the part of the simulation landscape without ASF infections. The efficacy of carcass removal was influenced by the time of contact with wild boar carcasses by con-species. Carcass removal time as reported from the field (2-6 weeks, median 4 weeks) did contribute marginally to success, whereas quick and effective carcass removal did improve the model outcome significantly, especially when first infectious contacts were assumed to take place a few weeks after death. The investigated measures were inadequate in model populations with higher local population densities than suggested for ASF affected areas before summer 2017. Representing real landscapes in the model tentatively improved the predictions but this would be at the cost of less general insights.
ID 19721
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=19721
Thulke, H.-H., Lange, M. (2017):
Simulation-based investigation of ASF spread and control in wildlife without consideration of human non-compliance to biosecurity. External scientific report
EFSA Supporting Publications 14 (11), art. 1312E