Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aa9388
Title (Primary) Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 ºC, and 2.0 ºC worlds
Author Mishra, V.; Mukherjee, S.; Kumar, R.; Stone, D.A.
Journal Environmental Research Letters
Year 2017
Department CHS
Volume 12
Issue 12
Page From art. 124012
Language englisch
UFZ wide themes RU5;
Abstract Heatwaves with large impacts have increased in the recent past and will continue to increase under future warming. However, the implication for population exposure to severe heatwaves remains unexplored. Here, we characterize maximum potential human exposure (without passive/active reduction measures) to severe heatwaves in India. We show that if the global mean temperature is limited to 2.0ºC above pre-industrial conditions, the frequency of severe heatwaves will rise by 30-times the current climate by the end -21st century. In contrast, the frequency is projected to be about 2.5 times more (than the low-warming scenario of 2ºC) under conditions expected if the RCP 8.5 "business-as-usual" emissions scenario is followed. Under the 2.0ºC low-warming target, population exposure to severe heatwaves is projected to increase by about 15 and 92-times the current level by the mid and end -21st century respectively. Strategies to reduce population growth in India during the 21st century may provide only limited mitigation of heatwave exposure mostly late in the century. Limiting global temperatures to 1.5°C above preindustrial would reduce the exposure by half relative to RCP8.5 by the mid-21st century. If global temperatures are to exceed 1.5°C then substantial measures will be required to offset the large increase in exposure to severe heatwaves in India.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Mishra, V., Mukherjee, S., Kumar, R., Stone, D.A. (2017):
Heat wave exposure in India in current, 1.5 ºC, and 2.0 ºC worlds
Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (12), art. 124012