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Title (Primary) Model-based estimation of market potential for Bio-SNG in the German biomethane market until 2030 within a system dynamics approach
Author Horschig, T.; Billig, E.; Thrän, D.
Source Titel Agronomy Research
Year 2016
Department BIOENERGIE
Volume 14
Issue 3
Page From 754
Page To 767
Language englisch
Keywords bio-SNG; System Dynamics; Bioenergy markets; biomethane
UFZ wide themes RU6;
Abstract One option for energy provision from renewables is the production and grid injection of synthetic natural gas from lignin-rich biomass like wood and straw. Bio-SNG (biological produced synthetic/substitute natural gas) is the product of the thermochemical production of methane via gasification and methanation of lignin-rich biomass. The first commercial bio-SNG plant went successfully into operation in the end of 2014, in Gothenburg (Sweden). Regarding the huge potential of lignin-rich biomass bio-SNG is expected to have a high potential for a sustainable and greenhouse gas reducing contribution in power, heat and fuel markets. Being a future technology with great advantages like storability and transportability within a gas grid but recently too high prices for market implementation, possible future market shares are uncertain because bio-SNG has to compete with anaerobic biomethane as well as fossil alternatives. With the combination of an extensive techno-economic evaluation for present and future costs of bio-SNG depending on the feedstock supply chain and economy of scale, Delphi-Survey and a quantitative market simulation we determined future market shares for biomethane and bio-SNG for Germany under varying scenarios like incentive schemes, economy of scale and feedstock prices. Results indicate that substantial governmental support in terms of either R&D effort to lower bio-SNG prices or direct subsidies for a further capacity development is necessary to achieve significant market shares for biogenic methane.
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=17596
Horschig, T., Billig, E., Thrän, D. (2016):
Model-based estimation of market potential for Bio-SNG in the German biomethane market until 2030 within a system dynamics approach
Agronomy Research 14 (3), 754 - 767