Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Reports
Title (Primary) Possible futures towards a wood-based bioeconomy: a scenario analysis for Germany
Author Hagemann, N.; Gawel, E.; Purkus, A.; Pannicke, N.; Hauck, J.; Ludwig, G.; Köck, W.
Year 2016
Department OEKON; UPR; UPOL
Page To 48
Language englisch
Keywords Scenarios; bioeconomy; biomass; wood utilization

The past few years have seen a significant increase in awareness that creating sustainable economic activity will require more in the future than a decarbonisation of energy supply. Around the world, governments are now pursuing comprehensive “bioeconomy” strategies. This also entails a transition towards sustainable industrial production, which requires the establishment of a sustainable circular economy. The bio-based economy is thus expected to play an increasingly important role worldwide. However, for our business practices and lifestyles, this will require a complex change of path, which is already presenting major challenges in the energy sector, not least with regard to ensuring the sustainability of those developments. Within the BioEconomy Excellence Cluster funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) partners from science and industry (the timber and forestry sectors, the chemical industry, the plastics industry and the plant construction sector) in Central Germany are working together on the material and energy-related use of non-food biomass, especially wood. The accompanying scientific research of the Excellence Cluster includes the development of policy and economic environment analyses. Using the scenario analysis method - originally developed for the business sector but now widely employed - alternative future development paths can be described which, among other things, allow businesses and policy makers to make strategic decisions under conditions of uncertainty. In this brochure, the Working Group on Law and Governance of the Bioeconomy presents the results of its scenario analysis “Possible futures for the wood-based bioeconomy: A scenario analysis for Germany”. Drawing on expert opinion, it illustrates potential future developments in the wood-based bioeconomy in Germany, and key influencing factors. As such, it makes an important contribution to strategy development not only for the BioEconomy Excellence Cluster itself but also for future bioeconomy policy.

Persistent UFZ Identifier
Hagemann, N., Gawel, E., Purkus, A., Pannicke, N., Hauck, J., Ludwig, G., Köck, W. (2016):
Possible futures towards a wood-based bioeconomy: a scenario analysis for Germany
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig, 48 pp.