Publication Details |
| Category | Text Publication |
| Reference Category | Journals |
| DOI | 10.4081/jlimnol.2016.1391 |
| Title (Primary) | Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on water quality modelling of Aguamilpa reservoir |
| Author | Rangel-Peraza, J.G.; de Anda, J.; González-Farías, F.A.; Rode, M.
|
| Source Titel | Journal of Limnology |
| Year | 2016 |
| Department | ASAM |
| Volume | 75 |
| Issue | 1s |
| Page From | 81 |
| Page To | 92 |
| Language | englisch |
| Keywords | Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis; water quality modelling; CE-QUAL-W2; Aguamilpa reservoir; Mexico |
| UFZ wide themes | RU2; |
| Abstract | The use of water quality models is determined to a great extent by their
ability to accurately reproduce observed data series and by their
predictive capability without the need to adjust the calibrated
parameters. However, the observed abiotic variables involved in a system
are measured with a level of uncertainty. The sensitivity analysis
concepts and generalized methodology of uncertainty analysis were used
via a computer tool called UNCSIM. As a first step, a parametric
optimization model of the Aguamilpa reservoir water quality was
accomplished. The aforementioned analysis identified that the wind
sheltering coefficient (WSC), Chezy bottom friction solution (FRICC),
and coefficient of bottom heat exchange (CBHE) were the parameters of
the CE-QUAL-W2 model that significantly influenced the behaviour of
temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration in the reservoir.
Afterwards, the uncertainty of the water quality model was evaluated
through the modification of the hydrological and climatological
information, which had a major influence on the simulation of the
system. This analysis showed the possible changes in hydrodynamic and
water quality characteristics of the reservoir, including an increase in
the thermocline due to a possible air temperature increase and a
rainfall decrease in the region. The innovative coupling routine of the
different modules for the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis developed
in this research establishes the basis for the future development of a
modelling platform to conduct water quality simulations of the Aguamilpa
reservoir in real time through continuous meteorological and water
discharge information. |
| Persistent UFZ Identifier | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=17368 |
| Rangel-Peraza, J.G., de Anda, J., González-Farías, F.A., Rode, M. (2016): Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on water quality modelling of Aguamilpa reservoir J. Limnol. 75 (1s), 81 - 92 10.4081/jlimnol.2016.1391 |
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