Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.3390/su8010098
Title (Primary) Possible futures towards a wood-based bioeconomy: a scenario analysis for Germany
Author Hagemann, N.; Gawel, E.; Purkus, A.; Pannicke, N.; Hauck, J.
Source Titel Sustainability
Year 2016
Department OEKON; iDiv; ESS
Volume 8
Issue 1
Page From art. 98
Language englisch
Keywords scenario development; bioeconomy; Germany; uncertainty; renewable resources; wood
UFZ wide themes RU6;
Abstract Driven by the growing awareness of the finite nature of fossil raw materials and the need for sustainable pathways of industrial production, the bio-based economy is expected to expand worldwide. Policy strategies such as the European Union Bioeconomy Strategy and national bioeconomy strategies foster this process. Besides the advantages promised by a transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy, these processes have to cope with significant uncertainties as many influencing factors play a role, such as climate change, technological and economic development, sustainability risks, dynamic consumption patterns and policy and governance issues. Based on a literature review and an expert survey, we identify influence factors for the future development of a wood-based bioeconomy in Germany. Four scenarios are generated based on different assumptions about the development of relevant influence factors. We discuss what developments in politics, industry and society have a central impact on shaping alternative futures. As such, the paper provides a knowledge base and orientation for decision makers and practitioners, and contributes to the scientific discussion on how the bioeconomy could develop. We conclude that the wood-based bioeconomy has a certain potential to develop further, if adequate political framework conditions are implemented and meet voter support, if consumers exhibit an enhanced willingness to pay for bio-based products, and if among companies, a chance-oriented advocacy coalition of bioeconomy supporters dominates over proponents of fossil pathways.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Hagemann, N., Gawel, E., Purkus, A., Pannicke, N., Hauck, J. (2016):
Possible futures towards a wood-based bioeconomy: a scenario analysis for Germany
Sustainability 8 (1), art. 98 10.3390/su8010098