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Title (Primary) Using ecological and life-history characteristics for projecting species' responses to climate change
Author Pompe, S.; Hanspach, J.; Badeck, F.-W.; Klotz, S.; Bruelheide, H.; Kühn, I.;
Journal Frontiers of Biogeography
Year 2014
Department BZF; iDiv;
Volume 6
Issue 3
Language englisch;
POF III (all) T11;
Keywords climate change scenarios; species traits; Germany; life form; Ellenberg values, range loss; range gain; range size; strategy type
UFZ wide themes RU1;
Abstract Assessing the impact of climate change on range dynamics is difficult in the absence of largeextent
distribution data. We developed a novel two-step approach as an instrument for biodiversity
risk assessment. First, we established relationships between modelled loss of occupied grid cells
(‘range loss’, R2=0.29), or gain of currently unoccupied grid cells (‘range gain’, R2=0.30), for
195 plant species with distributional data under the A1FI climate change scenario up to 2080,
and ecological and life history traits (life form, leaf persistence, ecological strategy, pollen vector,
Ellenberg indicator values and characteristics derived from species’ ranges). Secondly, we used
the resulting coefficients to predict climatic sensitivity for 688 plant species without spatially
explicit distributional information. The models predicted range losses of 34±20 % (mean±standard
deviation) and range gains of 3±4 %. Specifically, measures of species’ distribution, such as range
size, were significantly related to both range loss and range gain. Other traits associated with range
loss (e.g. life form, number of floristic zones) were not necessarily related to range gain (instead
related to Ellenberg temperature indicator), indicating that two distinct sets of ecological processes
govern range expansion and contraction. We found interaction effects between moisture indicator
values and life form for range loss, and between moisture and temperature indicator values for
range gain. The responses of species to climate change are complex and context dependent.
Thus, our results highlight the importance of incorporating trait interactions in models to assess
risks of climate change.
ID 15384
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Pompe, S., Hanspach, J., Badeck, F.-W., Klotz, S., Bruelheide, H., Kühn, I. (2014):
Using ecological and life-history characteristics for projecting species' responses to climate change
Front. Biogeogr. 6 (3), 119 - 131