|Reference Category||Book chapters|
|DOI / URL|
|Title (Primary)||Pan-European freshwater resources in a changing environment: how will the Blac See region develop?|
|Title (Secondary)||Integrated water resources management in a changing world : lessons learnt and innovative perspectives|
|Author||Flörke, M.; Bärlund, I.; Schneider, C.; Kynast, E.;|
|Publisher||Borchardt, D.; Ibisch, R.;|
|POF III (all)||T32;|
|Keywords||Black Sea region; climate change; scenarios; SCENES, water stress; water use|
|UFZ wide themes||RU2;|
|UFZ inventory||Bibliothek Gewässerforschung Magdeburg, 13-0688 MA, 00480390|
|Abstract||Climate change and socio-economic driving forces will affect Europe’s future freshwater resources.
A large-scale water model is used to analyse these effects and to identify ‘hot spots’ of water stress
in the Black Sea region, as an example of an area where future water demand is expected to exceed
the available water resources. Two scenarios are analysed, describing different developments of
water withdrawals. Depending on the scenario, water stress increases or decreases due to changing
water withdrawals which are identified as the principal cause of additional water stress in the future.
According to the ‘economic-oriented’ pathway, water withdrawals are expected to increase by 58%.
In Turkey and Bulgaria where water is already scarce, a further decrease in water availability will
exacerbate the situation. By contrast, the ‘quality of life oriented’ scenario, assuming raised
awareness to save water, results in a reduction of water withdrawals by approximately 59%. The
situation of decreasing availability and increasing demand leads to growing competition between
users and may finally end in cross-sectoral conflicts. This type of modelling study helps to prepare
and foresee which kind of management options (in which sectors especially, and where) would be
required to reduce ecological, economic and social consequences.
|Persistent UFZ Identifier||http://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=13884|
|Flörke, M., Bärlund, I., Schneider, C., Kynast, E. (2013):
Pan-European freshwater resources in a changing environment: how will the Blac See region develop?
In: Borchardt, D., Ibisch, R. (eds.)
Integrated water resources management in a changing world : lessons learnt and innovative perspectives
IWA Publishing, London, p. 3 - 12