Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Conference papers
URL http://www.iemss.org/society/index.php/iemss-2012-proceedings
Title (Primary) Simulating shrinkage as shock? Insights from existing shrinkage models
Title (Secondary) Managing resources of a limited planet: pathways and visions under uncertainty. Proceedings of the sixth biannial meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, Leipzig, Germany, July 1-5, 2012
Author Haase, D.; Schwarz, N.
Publisher Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.A.; Lange, S.; Bankamp, D.
Year 2012
Department CLE
Page From 2611
Page To 2618
Language englisch
Keywords urban shrinkage, pattern-oriented modelling, model, review, shock
Abstract Modellers and social scientists attempt to find better explanations of complex urban systems. Such explanations include development paths, underlying driving forces, and impacts of such systems but might also include shocks. So far, land-use research has predominantly focused on urban – means population and/or settlement – growth. However, a comparatively new challenge has arisen since urban shrinkage entered the research agenda of the land use science. Although the phenomenon of urban shrinkage has become increasingly widespread in Europe, the US and Japan, urban land use modelling has rarely addressed it nei-ther in terms of process description and dynamics, nor in terms of being a conse-quence of the 1989/1990 political transition shock. Based on knowledge of social science research (Haase et al. 2012), we first identify processes related to urban shrinkage by using the concept of pattern-oriented modelling. Second, we assess the capacity and pros and cons of existing land-use modelling approaches (system dynamics, cellular automata and agent-based models) to integrate the processes and variables of shrinkage. Third, we discuss in detail examples of existing simula-tion models that already cover aspects of urban shrinkage. So doing, we include a discussion of urban shrinkage as a consequence of shock in the urban system.
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=13839
Haase, D., Schwarz, N. (2012):
Simulating shrinkage as shock? Insights from existing shrinkage models
In: Seppelt, R., Voinov, A.A., Lange, S., Bankamp, D. (eds.)
Managing resources of a limited planet: pathways and visions under uncertainty. Proceedings of the sixth biannial meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, Leipzig, Germany, July 1-5, 2012
2611 - 2618