Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Conference papers
URL http://www.iemss.org/society/index.php/iemss-2012-proceedings
Title (Primary) Land-use scenario modelling based on human decisions - Combining system dynamics and cellular automata
Title (Secondary) Managing resources of a limited planet: pathways and visions under uncertainty. Proceedings of the sixth biannial meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, Leipzig, Germany, July 1-5, 2012
Author Lauf, S.; Haase, D.; Kleinschmit, B.
Publisher Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.A.; Lange, S.; Bankamp, D.
Year 2012
Department CLE
Page From 1969
Page To 1976
Language englisch
Keywords Urban region, land-use model, system dynamics, cellular automaton, scenario simulations, Berlin
Abstract

Our paper introduces a combined model approach using system
dynamics simulating regional drivers and cellular automaton representing local
land-use dynamics. The model benefits from conclusive causal interrelations of
detailed population dynamics, real household decision parameters, residential
demand on prevailing residential land use types and residential supply as a result
of dynamic housing parameters. Consequently, we can simulate growth and
shrinkage processes to occur concurrently within an urban region. In this process,
human decisions are covered in two ways, firstly, by bottom-up individual
residential choice-making over different residential types and secondly by top-down
decision making by planning authorities. The model is applied to the metropolitan
region of Berlin. It provides more plausible results compared to cellular automata
approaches using conventional trend based regional input models. Human
decisions on land-use are displayed in six scenarios representing possible future
paths of BerlinĀ“s urban development from 2008 to 2030. The findings indicate that
the effect on residential patterns due to different planning approaches is equal to
the effect introduced by the likely maximum deviation of economic and
demographic trends as proved by kappa values. A quality assessment confirms the
benefit of the combined approach and affirms that the model functionality is sound.

Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=13832
Lauf, S., Haase, D., Kleinschmit, B. (2012):
Land-use scenario modelling based on human decisions - Combining system dynamics and cellular automata
In: Seppelt, R., Voinov, A.A., Lange, S., Bankamp, D. (eds.)
Managing resources of a limited planet: pathways and visions under uncertainty. Proceedings of the sixth biannial meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society, Leipzig, Germany, July 1-5, 2012
p. 1969 - 1976