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Title (Primary) Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff
Author Piniewski, M.; Voss, F.; Bärlund, I.; Okruszko, T.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.;
Journal Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques
Year 2013
Department ASAM;
Volume 58
Issue 4
Language englisch;
POF III (all) T31;
Keywords global hydrological model, catchment hydrological model, WaterGAP, SWAT, climate change, Narew River, Poland
UFZ wide themes RU2;
Abstract

The effect of using two distributed hydrological models with different degrees of spatial aggregation on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff was investigated. Analyses were conducted in the Narew River basin situated in northeast Poland using a global hydrological model (WaterGAP) and a catchment-scale hydrological model (SWAT). Climate change was represented in both models by projected changes in monthly temperature and precipitation between the period 2040–2069 and the baseline period, resulting from two general circulation models: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2, both coupled with the SRES A2 emissions scenario. The degree of consistency between the global and the catchment model was very high for mean annual runoff, and medium for indicators of high and low runoff. It was observed that SWAT generally suggests changes of larger magnitude than WaterGAP for both climate models, but SWAT and WaterGAP were consistent as regards the direction of change in monthly runoff. The results indicate that a global model can be used in Central and Eastern European lowlands to identify hot-spots where a catchment-scale model should be applied to evaluate, e.g. the effectiveness of management options.

ID 13740
Persistent UFZ Identifier http://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=13740
Piniewski, M., Voss, F., Bärlund, I., Okruszko, T., Kundzewicz, Z.W. (2013):
Effect of modelling scale on the assessment of climate change impact on river runoff
Hydrol. Sci. J.-J. Sci. Hydrol. 58 (4), 737 - 754