Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0231
Title (Primary) Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany
Author Pompe, S.; Hanspach, J.; Badeck, F.; Klotz, S.; Thuiller, W.; Kühn, I. ORCID logo
Journal Biology Letters
Year 2008
Department BZF
Volume 4
Issue 5
Page From 564
Page To 567
Language englisch
Keywords climate change; predictive modelling; plant ranges; Germany
Abstract We present niche-based modelling to project the distribution of 845 European plant species for Germany using three different models and three scenarios of climate and land use changes up to 2080. Projected changes suggested large effects over the coming decades, with consequences for the German flora. Even under a moderate scenario (approx. +2.2°C), 15-19% (across models) of the species we studied could be lost locally-averaged from 2995 grid cells in Germany. Models projected strong spatially varying impacts on the species composition. In particular, the eastern and southwestern parts of Germany were affected by species loss. Scenarios were characterized by an increased number of species occupying small ranges, as evidenced by changes in range-size rarity scores. It is anticipated that species with small ranges will be especially vulnerable to future climate change and other ecological stresses.
Persistent UFZ Identifier
Pompe, S., Hanspach, J., Badeck, F., Klotz, S., Thuiller, W., Kühn, I. (2008):
Climate and land use change impacts on plant distributions in Germany
Biol. Lett. 4 (5), 564 - 567