|DOI / URL||link|
|Title (Primary)||Increasing range mismatching of interacting species under global change is related to their ecological characteristics|
|Author||Schweiger, O.; Heikkinen, R.K.; Harpke, A.; Hickler, T.; Klotz, S.; Kudrna, O.; Kühn, I.; Pöyry, J.; Settele, J.;|
|Journal||Global Ecology and Biogeography|
|Keywords||Climate change; climate envelope; Europe; host-plant-constrained range; species|
Aim We investigate the importance of interacting species for current and potential future species distributions, the influence of their ecological characteristics on projected range shifts when considering or ignoring interacting species, and the consistency of observed relationships across different global change scenarios.
Methods We developed ecological niche models (generalized linear models) for 36 European butterfly species and their larval host plants based on climate and land-use data. We projected future distributional changes using three integrated global change scenarios for 2080. Observed and projected mismatches in potential butterfly niche space and the niche space of their hosts were first used to assess changing range limitations due to interacting species and then to investigate the importance of different ecological characteristics.
Results Most butterfly species were primarily limited by climate. Species dwelling in warm areas of
Main conclusions Future changes in the co-occurrence of interacting species will depend on political and socio-economic development, suggesting that the composition of novel communities due to global change will depend on the way we create our future. A better knowledge of ecological species characteristics can be utilized to project the future fate and potential risk of extinction of interacting
species leading to a better understanding of the consequences of changing biotic interactions. This will further enhance our abilities to assess and mitigate potential negative effects on ecosystem functions and services.
|Persistent UFZ Identifier||http://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=11326|
|Schweiger, O., Heikkinen, R.K., Harpke, A., Hickler, T., Klotz, S., Kudrna, O., Kühn, I., Pöyry, J., Settele, J. (2012):
Increasing range mismatching of interacting species under global change is related to their ecological
Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 21 (1), 88 - 99