Study region

Eight representative sites across the northern and southern Mediterranean region: Bode (Germany), Agia (Greece), Arborea (Italy), Mujib (Jordan), Sebou (Morocco), Albufera (Spain), Medjerda (Tunisia), and Konya (Türkiye), characterized by different hydro-climatic conditions.

Study focus

Understanding future climate at the local scale is essential for informed decision-making and adaptation planning, especially in the climate-sensitive Mediterranean region, which is not only warming but also approaching critical thresholds. This study assesses long-term climate trajectories by combining historical precipitation and temperature records with projections from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1–2.6 and SSP3–7.0. Incomplete historical datasets were reconstructed using advanced imputation techniques, while statistical downscaling was used to adjust the climate model outputs to the local scale.

New hydrological insights for the region

Results reveal a robust warming, particularly in summer, exceeding +4 °C under SSP3–7.0 by the end of the century, while precipitation exhibits marked spatial and seasonal variability, including pronounced drying in already water-stressed regions. The analysis of climate extreme indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) indicates an intensification of heatwaves and shifts in rainfall persistence and extremes. These findings advance the understanding of climate change at actionable spatial scales and provide critical evidence to inform site-specific adaptation strategies and long-term water, social, and environmental management planning.