Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110501 |
Lizenz  |
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| Titel (primär) | Meteorological-to-agricultural drought propagation based on the "Press-Pulse" framework |
| Autor | Feng, K.; Wang, S.; Wang, Y.; Wu, H.; Li, Y.; Huang, S.; Peng, J.
; Su, X.; Wang, F.; Qu, J.; Zhang, Z. |
| Quelle | Agricultural Water Management |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2026 |
| Department | RS |
| Band/Volume | 332 |
| Seite von | art. 110501 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Keywords | Meteorological drought; Agricultural drought; "Press-Pulse" framework; Propagation threshold |
| Abstract | Drought
propagation is a key process linking meteorological anomalies to
agricultural impacts within the hydrological cycle. Under climate
warming, the superimposition of long-term increasing temperature trends
("Press") and short-term extreme drought events ("Pulse") fundamentally
alters the propagation dynamics from meteorological drought to
agricultural drought. Therefore, it is important to elucidate the
driving mechanisms and impact patterns of this superposition effect on
the drought propagation process. Using multi-source hydrometeorological
datasets, we developed a Copula-based "Press–Pulse" framework to
quantify meteorological-to-agricultural drought propagation (MTAD) in
the Yellow River Basin during 1961–2021, with a focus on propagation
probabilities, propagation thresholds, and temperature-regulation
effects,with a focus on propagation probabilities, propagation
thresholds, and the temperature-regulation effects on MTAD. The results
show that: (1) Propagation exhibits strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity,
peaking in early summer (June) with basin-averaged probabilities
exceeding 0.6 and response areas covering ∼23% of the basin, before
attenuating to ∼0.3–0.4 by August due to precipitation replenishment.
(2) The superimposition of high-temperature 'Press' significantly
amplifies this risk, increasing agricultural drought probabilities by
10–25% and systematically deepening the triggering SPEI thresholds
(e.g., from −0.5 to −1.0), particularly in the water-limited middle
reaches. (3) Identification of a critical Press Tipping Point reveals a
distinct spatial divergence: while an intensified temperature press
exacerbates drought susceptibility across the semi-arid Loess Plateau by
accelerating soil moisture depletion, it conversely exerts a localized
buffering effect in the upstream high-altitude regions, where the
press-induced snowmelt recharge offsets pulse (precipitation) deficits.
Overall, warming systematically lowers the barriers for drought
propagation, underscoring the necessity of incorporating
temperature-dependent dynamic thresholds into drought early warning and
adaptation strategies. |
| Feng, K., Wang, S., Wang, Y., Wu, H., Li, Y., Huang, S., Peng, J., Su, X., Wang, F., Qu, J., Zhang, Z. (2026): Meteorological-to-agricultural drought propagation based on the "Press-Pulse" framework Agric. Water Manage. 332 , art. 110501 10.1016/j.agwat.2026.110501 |
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