Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.eja.2026.128097 |
Lizenz  |
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| Titel (primär) | Model-based assessment of organic fertilization as alternative to mineral P under future climate change |
| Autor | Mohammed, G.; Siebers, N.; Merbach, I.; Herbst, M. |
| Quelle | European Journal of Agronomy |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2026 |
| Department | BZF |
| Band/Volume | 177 |
| Seite von | art. 128097 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 |
| Keywords | Organic fertilization; P dynamics; Crop yield; Sustainability; Climate change |
| Abstract | Sustainable agriculture depends on reliable phosphorus (P) supplies, yet global reserves of mineral P fertilizers are finite. Here, we explored whether organic fertilization could serve as a viable substitute for mineral P while sustaining crop yields and soil P under changing climate conditions. Using the calibrated and validated AgroC model with decades of field data from the Bad Lauchstädt long-term experiment site in Germany (with a four-crop rotation of sugar beet, spring barley, potato, and winter wheat), we simulated crop performance and soil P dynamics from 2019 to 2100 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. The analysis compared five fertilization strategies: mineral fertilization (MIN), two farmyard manure rates (FYM_20 and FYM_30), and two optimized manure regimes (FYM_37 and FYM_37 +N). Results showed that fertilization strategy had a far greater influence on soil P and yields than the projected climate scenarios. Low manure inputs (FYM_20) led to steady P depletion and yield loss, whereas FYM_30 and FYM_37 reduced winter wheat yield losses to 45% and 30% below MIN levels, respectively, while achieving comparable or superior yields for barley, potato, and sugar beet. Winter wheat required modest mineral N supplementation (∼15 kg N ha⁻¹) in FYM_37 +N to achieve optimal yields, while potato, barley, and sugar beet performed well under manure-only management. Warmer conditions under RCP8.5 increased P depletion by 10–15% relative to RCP4.5, but this effect remained minor compared with fertilization management. Notably, higher manure application rates were linked to lower cumulative P leaching. Among treatments, FYM_37_N performed best, with total P losses only 1.5–2% higher than those of MIN (3.77–4.82 kg P ha⁻¹ for MIN under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our results suggest that optimized organic fertilization can effectively replace mineral P inputs, maintain crop yields, and enhance resilience in long-term cropping systems under climate change. |
| Mohammed, G., Siebers, N., Merbach, I., Herbst, M. (2026): Model-based assessment of organic fertilization as alternative to mineral P under future climate change Eur. J. Agron. 177 , art. 128097 10.1016/j.eja.2026.128097 |
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