Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.1088/2752-5295/ae541a |
Lizenz  |
|
| Titel (primär) | Attribution of extreme weather event impacts on crop yields and economic damages to climate change |
| Autor | Nagpal, M.; Heilemann, J.; Klassert, C.; Bevacqua, E.
; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L.
; Klauer, B.; Gawel, E.
|
| Quelle | Environmental Research: Climate |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2026 |
| Department | OEKON; CHS; CER |
| Band/Volume | 5 |
| Heft | 2 |
| Seite von | art. 021001 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 |
| Keywords | impact attribution; climate and weather extremes; climate change impacts; Germany; loss and damages |
| Abstract | As climate change intensifies, regions worldwide face
growing impacts from extreme weather events (EWEs), including compound
and sequential extreme events. These events pose significant risks to
agriculture, where weather variability directly affects crop yields and
revenue. Quantifying the share of damages attributable to human-induced
climate change is essential for targeted mitigation and adaptation
planning. Here, we estimate yield and revenue losses from EWEs
attributable to human-induced climate change in Germany during
2018–2020. Using crop-specific statistical models, we compare simulated
yields under factual (observed) and counterfactual (without climate
change) conditions to assess climate change-attributable agricultural
damages. We find that EWE-driven yield losses were statistically
significantly affected by human-induced climate change across Germany,
with the strongest negative impacts averaged over 2018–2020 for silage
maize (-3.21%; [-4.73%, -1.68%], 95% range across 23 climate models).
Winter crops showed smaller losses (e.g., winter wheat, -0.39% [-0.72%,
-0.07%]) or even gains (e.g., winter barley, 1.04% [0.67%, 1.42%]). A
pronounced north-south gradient emerged, with greater losses in northern
and central Germany. Nationally, we estimate an average annual revenue
loss of €287 [€212, €363] million, equivalent to 2.8% [2.2%, 3.3%] of
the total counterfactual revenue. This loss accounts for roughly
one-third of the estimated direct EWE-driven damages for German
agriculture. Decomposition analysis reveals that these impacts are
predominantly driven by temperature increases. Our results highlight the
growing economic burden of EWEs on agriculture under climate change and
offer actionable insights for climate-resilient agricultural policy,
adaptation planning, and economic evaluation of mitigation strategies. |
| Nagpal, M., Heilemann, J., Klassert, C., Bevacqua, E., Rakovec, O., Samaniego, L., Klauer, B., Gawel, E. (2026): Attribution of extreme weather event impacts on crop yields and economic damages to climate change Environ. Res. Clim. 5 (2), art. 021001 10.1088/2752-5295/ae541a |
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