Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41586-026-10237-9 |
Lizenz  |
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| Titel (primär) | Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes |
| Autor | Bevacqua, E.
; Fischer, E.; Sillmann, J.; Zscheischler, J.
|
| Quelle | Nature |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2026 |
| Department | CER |
| Band/Volume | 651 |
| Seite von | 946 |
| Seite bis | 953 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Daten-/Softwarelinks | https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-026-10237-9/MediaObjects/41586_2026_10237_MOESM2_ESM.xlsx https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-026-10237-9/MediaObjects/41586_2026_10237_MOESM3_ESM.xlsx https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-026-10237-9/MediaObjects/41586_2026_10237_MOESM4_ESM.xlsx https://zenodo.org/records/17864854 |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 |
| Abstract | Effectively communicating worst-case projections of global future climate—hereinafter referred to as worst-case climate outcomes—is essential for risk assessment and developing robust adaptation strategies to global warming1,2,3,4,5,6,7. Yet, current approaches for identifying spatially consistent climate outcomes are limited, with worst-case global climates typically communicated via the average of climate model projections at high global warming levels, such as 3 °C or 4 °C above the preindustrial era8,9. Here we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming for several sectors. For droughts in global key breadbasket regions, precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire weather extremes across forests, global climatic impact-drivers at 2 °C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming. We derive these results by identifying sector-specific, spatially consistent potential high- and low-impact global climate outcomes through spatially averaging projected sector-relevant climatic impact-drivers across key global regions. Our approach can easily be adapted to a wide range of sectors to support the improvement of sector-specific climate risk assessment and to inform climate policy. As global warming approaches 1.5 °C (ref. 10), these findings underscore the urgency of rapid mitigation to limit warming well below 2 °C, as even a 2 °C world may entail severe impacts. |
| Bevacqua, E., Fischer, E., Sillmann, J., Zscheischler, J. (2026): Moderate global warming does not rule out extreme global climate outcomes Nature 651 , 946 - 953 10.1038/s41586-026-10237-9 |
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