Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.1002/ecs2.70539 |
Lizenz  |
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| Titel (primär) | Reconciling dynamic epidemiological models with long-term outbreak data: The case of classical swine fever in Germany |
| Autor | Kürschner, T.; Radchuk, V.; Planillo, A.; Scherer, C.; Blaum, N.; Staubach, C.; Thulke, H.-H.
; Kramer-Schadt, S. |
| Quelle | Ecosphere |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2026 |
| Department | OESA |
| Band/Volume | 17 |
| Heft | 2 |
| Seite von | e70539 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Daten-/Softwarelinks | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17650526 |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 Supplement 2 |
| Keywords | classical swine fever; explicit movement; host–pathogen dynamics; individual-based model; pattern-oriented modeling; simulation; Sus scrofa |
| Abstract |
Understanding the complex interplay between contact
networks in social host species and individual movement decisions is
essential for designing effective disease control strategies in wild
animals. We use a spatially explicit eco-epidemiological
individual-based model to investigate the effect of host movement
decisions on disease spread and persistence and reconcile findings with
the patterns of a long-term outbreak dataset. Using alternative
mechanistic host movement submodels, in which decisions where to move
are affected by either landscape structure or density of conspecifics,
we validate simulations of disease spread against the known long-term
patterns of spread of classical swine fever in wild boar in Northern
Germany by applying the same sampling scheme as in the field. We compare
simulated with observed data using three key metrics: age class
distribution of infected hosts, speed of pathogen spread, and spatial
distribution patterns of infected individuals. We found two main
movement strategies matching the observed pathogen spread and spatial
patterns: correlated, habitat-driven movement and competition-driven
movement. Furthermore, the only movement strategy that was able to
recreate the observed trend in the age class distribution of infected
host individuals was the implicit movement, purely based on host
density. Our results show the significant impact of habitat composition
and host population density on disease outbreak dynamics. |
| Kürschner, T., Radchuk, V., Planillo, A., Scherer, C., Blaum, N., Staubach, C., Thulke, H.-H., Kramer-Schadt, S. (2026): Reconciling dynamic epidemiological models with long-term outbreak data: The case of classical swine fever in Germany Ecosphere 17 (2), e70539 10.1002/ecs2.70539 |
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