Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111021 |
Lizenz ![]() |
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| Titel (primär) | The influence of spatial correlations in crop production on global crop failures in model simulations |
| Autor | Feng, S.; Zscheischler, J.
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| Quelle | Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2026 |
| Department | CER |
| Band/Volume | 379 |
| Seite von | art. 111021 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 |
| Keywords | Crop failure; Spatially compounding events; GGCMI |
| Abstract | Spatial
correlation between climate variables may modulate concurrent regional
crop failures and reduce global crop production. However, the influence
of spatial correlation in crop production fields on globally aggregated
production remains poorly understood. Systematically addressing this gap
using observed crop production is challenging, as such observational
datasets typically suffer from limited sample sizes and/or coarse
spatial information. Here, using gridded global simulations from the
Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Phase 3 (GGCMI3), we quantify
how spatial correlation between regional crop productions influences
global production across different spatial scales for maize, wheat,
soybean, and rice. By employing the mean of crop production from
multiple crop models forced with reanalysis climate data, we find
minimal influence of the correlations between the productions of major
breadbasket regions on global breadbasket-aggregated production. This
aligns with the fact that global major breadbasket regions are generally
non-large and distant from each other, whereas spatial correlations in
the crop production field influence global crop production through
correlations between small and nearby areas. The correlation between
crop production of areas characterized by small spatial scales (100–1000
km) enhances extremely low (5th percentile) global production by about
0.9-1.1 standard deviation of the global production on average. This
correlation effect at small spatial scales is less important for weaker
extremes of low global crop production. Finally, crop model simulations
forced with bias-corrected climate simulations often are not able to
reproduce the correlation effects seen in crop model simulations forced
with reanalysis climate data, suggesting that bias-corrected climate
model input may degrade correlation effects in GGCMI3 crop simulations.
These model-based results highlight that spatial correlations are a
critical driver of global production risk, stressing the need for
improved cross-regional processes representation in crop models to
enhance future food security risk assessments. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=31989 |
| Feng, S., Zscheischler, J., Hao, Z., Jägermeyr, J., Müller, C., Bevacqua, E. (2026): The influence of spatial correlations in crop production on global crop failures in model simulations Agric. For. Meteorol. 379 , art. 111021 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111021 |
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