Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.5194/hess-30-2817-2026 |
Lizenz ![]() |
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| Titel (primär) | Reconstructed soil moisture droughts in Belgium reveal 2011–2020 was the driest decade since 1970 |
| Autor | Lekarkar, K.; Rakovec, O.; Kumar, R.
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| Quelle | Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2026 |
| Department | CHS |
| Band/Volume | 30 |
| Heft | 9 |
| Seite von | 2817 |
| Seite bis | 2835 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | Supplement 1 |
| Abstract | In recent years, Belgium has experienced a sequence of
intense droughts with wide-ranging impacts across multiple sectors.
Determining whether these events are unprecedented or within natural
variability requires indicators that properly diagnose drought.
Root-zone soil moisture is a suitable indicator because it integrates
meteorological forcings with land-surface processes. In Belgium,
however, operational monitoring relies mainly on precipitation-based
indices and lacks long-term in situ soil-moisture observations, leaving
uncertainty about whether these indices capture the persistence of
root-zone drought. To address this gap, we reconstructed daily root-zone
soil-moisture dynamics over Belgium from 1970 to 2020 using the
mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM), placing recent droughts in historical
context and evaluating the adequacy of precipitation-based indicators
for representing drought conditions. Our analysis shows that droughts in
2011–2020 were unprecedented in both duration and severity over the
past five decades. Between 2011 and 2020, the country experienced a
cumulative three years (non-consecutive) of drought exposure,
representing 30 % of the decade. This more than doubles the cumulative
duration in each decade from 1981 to 2010 and is about 1.5 times that of
1971 to 1980. We further find that the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), currently used operationally as a proxy for agricultural droughts in Belgium, underestimates the persistence of root-zone droughts because it does not explicitly account for land-surface memory. Thus, by including soil moisture monitoring in drought assessment, residual stresses on agriculture and subsurface water, which can persist long after meteorological conditions have normalized, can still be detected. This gives decision-makers a more realistic understanding of droughts and how to respond proportionately. |
| Lekarkar, K., Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Dondeyne, S., van Griensven, A. (2026): Reconstructed soil moisture droughts in Belgium reveal 2011–2020 was the driest decade since 1970 Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 30 (9), 2817 - 2835 10.5194/hess-30-2817-2026 |
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