Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.1038/s43247-025-02691-6 |
Lizenz  |
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| Titel (primär) | Recombining past event precipitation and antecedent catchment states generates unprecedented floods |
| Autor | Han, L.; Merz, B.; Nguyen, V.D.; Guse, B.; Samaniego, L.
; Schröter, K.; Vorogushyn, S. |
| Quelle | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2025 |
| Department | CHS |
| Band/Volume | 6 |
| Seite von | art. 692 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Daten-/Softwarelinks | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4575390 https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.RDOQ.2025.003 |
| Supplements | https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs43247-025-02691-6/MediaObjects/43247_2025_2691_MOESM2_ESM.pdf |
| Abstract | River
floods that exceed historical records often occur unexpectedly, causing
widespread damage and disruption. To improve disaster preparedness, it
is crucial to explore exceptional flood scenarios that surpass past
observations. Here we introduce a perfect storm approach that recombines
historically observed extremes in precipitation and soil moisture to
generate plausible flood scenarios that are easy to understand by lay
people and flood risk managers. Our analysis covers the ten most
damaging floods recorded in Germany, two additional extreme
precipitation events and two cases of exceptionally wet soil moisture
conditions. The results show that the severity and damage of these
recombined floods can systematically exceed those of the observed
events, demonstrating the potential of the perfect storm approach to
generate plausible scenarios of unprecedented floods. While shifting
extreme rainfall to wetter soil consistently amplifies flood severity,
moving events by just 1 month can also intensify flooding, which
underscores the critical role of temporal alignment between catchment
state and precipitation. Our study enables planners and policymakers to
anticipate extreme flood scenarios beyond historical precedents, and
offers a simple, yet powerful, strategy for obtaining flood scenarios to
enhance disaster preparedness. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=31243 |
| Han, L., Merz, B., Nguyen, V.D., Guse, B., Samaniego, L., Schröter, K., Vorogushyn, S. (2025): Recombining past event precipitation and antecedent catchment states generates unprecedented floods Commun. Earth Environ. 6 , art. 692 10.1038/s43247-025-02691-6 |
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