Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Preprints |
| DOI | 10.2139/ssrn.5269371 |
| Titel (primär) | Unintended consequences of public policies in increasing risk: The safe development paradox in the Revólver Basin, Brazil |
| Autor | Fusinato, E.; Han, S.
; Kobiyama, M.; de Brito, M.M. |
| Quelle | SSRN |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2025 |
| Department | SUSOZ |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Abstract | The escalating climate crisis prompts governments to implement adaptation measures for safety. While well-intentioned, these efforts may inadvertently foster development in high-risk areas, a phenomenon known as the ‘safe development paradox’ (SDP). While the SDP has been studied in relation to structural measures, the influence of non-structural measures remains understudied. To address this gap, we examine how public policies and non-intentional disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures contribute to the SDP in the Revólver basin – a basin in Brazil struck by a compound hydrological disaster (landslides, debris flow, and flash floods) and the COVID-19. Using mixed methods approach, including interviews with community members (n=151) and stakeholders (n=10), document analysis, and spatial analysis through the lenses of the protection motivation theory, we found that responsive measures were predominantly non-protective. A third of the interviewees exhibited a false sense of safety, fostered by trust in the government and the consideration of building permits as safety indicators. Stakeholders indicated that DRR actions were absent, as the study area had been deemed secure. Policies such as inadequate risk mapping, urban expansion, and the relaxation of riparian regulations facilitated settlement in hazardous regions and influenced the false sense of safety, exacerbating the SDP. Therefore, local government policies influenced the SDP, especially in regions where disasters do not occur frequently. Our findings suggest that non-structural policies, including those indirectly related to DRR, can unintentionally increase risk. Hence, we propose broadening the SDP concept to include both intentional and non-intentional DRR measures and policies inducing adverse effects. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=30855 |
| Fusinato, E., Han, S., Kobiyama, M., de Brito, M.M. (2025): Unintended consequences of public policies in increasing risk: The safe development paradox in the Revólver Basin, Brazil SSRN 10.2139/ssrn.5269371 |
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