Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181 |
Lizenz  |
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| Titel (primär) | The ISIMIP groundwater sector: a framework for ensemble modeling of global change impacts on groundwater |
| Autor | Reinecke, R.; Akhter, T.; Bäthge, A.; Dietrich, R.; Gnann, S.; Gosling, S.N.; Grogan, D.; Hartmann, A.; Kollet, S.; Kumar, R.
; Lammers, R.; Liu, S.; Liu, Y.; Moosdorf, N.; Naz, B.; Nazari, S.; Orazulike, C.; Pokhrel, Y.; Schewe, J.; Smilovic, M.; Strokal, M.; Thiery, W.; Wada, Y.; Zuidema, S.; de Graaf, I. |
| Quelle | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2026 |
| Department | CHS |
| Band/Volume | 19 |
| Heft | 1 |
| Seite von | 523 |
| Seite bis | 542 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Daten-/Softwarelinks | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17853094 |
| Abstract | Groundwater
serves as a crucial freshwater resource for people and ecosystems,
playing a vital role in adapting to climate change. Yet, its
availability and dynamics are affected by climate variations, changes in
land use, and abstraction. Despite its importance, our understanding of
how global change will influence groundwater in the future remains
limited. Multi-model ensembles are powerful tools for impact
assessments; compared to single-model studies, they provide a more
comprehensive understanding of uncertainties and enhance the robustness
of projections by capturing a range of possible outcomes. However, to
date, no ensemble of groundwater models has been available to assess the
impacts of global change. Here, we present the new Groundwater sector
within ISIMIP, which combines multiple global, continental, and
regional-scale groundwater models. We describe the rationale for the
sector, the sectoral output variables that underpinned the modeling
protocol, and showcase current model differences and possible future
analysis. Currently, eight models are participating in this sector,
ranging from gradient-based groundwater models to specialized karst
recharge models, each producing up to 19 out of 23 modeling
protocol-defined output variables. To showcase the benefits of a joint
sector, we utilize available model outputs of the participating models
to show the substantial differences in estimating water table depth
(global arithmetic mean 6–127 m) and groundwater recharge (global
arithmetic mean 78–228 mm yr−1),
which is consistent with recent studies on the uncertainty of
groundwater models, but with distinct spatial patterns. We further
outline synergies with 13 of the 17 existing ISIMIP sectors and
specifically discuss those with the global water and water quality
sectors. Finally, this paper outlines a vision for ensemble-based
groundwater studies that can contribute to a better understanding of the
impacts of climate change, land use change, environmental change, and
socio-economic change on the world's largest accessible freshwater store
– groundwater. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=30768 |
| Reinecke, R., Akhter, T., Bäthge, A., Dietrich, R., Gnann, S., Gosling, S.N., Grogan, D., Hartmann, A., Kollet, S., Kumar, R., Lammers, R., Liu, S., Liu, Y., Moosdorf, N., Naz, B., Nazari, S., Orazulike, C., Pokhrel, Y., Schewe, J., Smilovic, M., Strokal, M., Thiery, W., Wada, Y., Zuidema, S., de Graaf, I. (2026): The ISIMIP groundwater sector: a framework for ensemble modeling of global change impacts on groundwater Geosci. Model Dev. 19 (1), 523 - 542 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1181 |
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