Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.1038/s41612-025-01021-z |
Lizenz  |
|
| Titel (primär) | Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes |
| Autor | Feng, S.; Zscheischler, J.
; Hao, Z.; Bevacqua, E.
|
| Quelle | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2025 |
| Department | CER |
| Band/Volume | 8 |
| Seite von | art. 152 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41612-025-01021-z/MediaObjects/41612_2025_1021_MOESM1_ESM.pdf |
| Abstract | Wildfires cause large damage to natural and human systems. Despite the clear connection between human-induced climate change and increased fire weather risk, a global, systematic attribution of observed extreme fires to human-induced climate change is lacking. Here, we address this gap by first linking observed regional weekly burned area extremes (>85th percentile) to the fire weather index (FWI) during the fire seasons of 2002–2015 via a logistic regression model, and then using simulations from climate models to quantify the impact of human-induced climate change. Focusing on regions with good predictability of the statistical model, we find that human-induced climate change was responsible for a fraction equal to 8% (±4%, standard deviation across climate models) of the predicted probability of more than 700 regional fire extremes on average, thereby increasing the probability of experiencing a fire extreme across 15 out of 19 analysed regions. While higher temperature is the main driver of the increased fire extreme probability, shifts in precipitation, relative humidity, and/or wind speed substantially modulated fire changes across many regions. Mainly because of warming, the probability of extreme fires attributable to human-induced climate change increased by 5.2%/decade globally over 2002–2015, in line with an acceleration of the climate-driven enhancement of fire extremes over the last decades that may continue in the near future. These findings highlight the urgent need for sustainable fire management strategies. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=30698 |
| Feng, S., Zscheischler, J., Hao, Z., Bevacqua, E. (2025): Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes npj Clim. Atmos. Sci. 8 , art. 152 10.1038/s41612-025-01021-z |
|