Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.3390/w17050660 |
Lizenz  |
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| Titel (primär) | Modeling the nexus of climate change and deforestation: implications for the blue water resources of the Jari River, Amazonia |
| Autor | Rufino, P.R.; Gücker, B.; Volk, M.; Strauch, M.
; da Silva Cardozo, F.; Boëchat, I.G.; Faramarzi, M.; Pereira, G. |
| Quelle | Water |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2025 |
| Department | CLE |
| Band/Volume | 17 |
| Heft | 5 |
| Seite von | art. 660 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | https://www.mdpi.com/article/10.3390/w17050660/s1 |
| Keywords | SWAT; hydrology; Amazon; climate change; deforestation scenarios |
| Abstract | Deforestation and agricultural practices, such as livestock farming, disrupt biogeochemical cycles, contribute to climate change, and can lead to serious environmental problems. Understanding the water cycle and changes in discharge patterns at the watershed scale is essential to tracking how deforestation affects the flow to downstream water bodies and the ocean. The Amazon basin, which provides about 15–20% of the freshwater flowing into the oceans, is one of the most important river systems in the world. Despite this, it is increasingly suffering from anthropogenic pressure, mainly from converting rainforests to agricultural and livestock areas, which can drive global warming and ecosystem instability. In this study, we applied a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to the Jari River Watershed, a part of the Brazilian Amazon, to assess the combined effects of deforestation and climate change on water resources between 2020 and 2050. The model was calibrated and validated using observed streamflow. The results show an NS of 0.85 and 0.89, PBIAS of −9.5 and −0.6, p-factor of 0.84 and 0.93, and r-factor of 0.84 and 0.78, for periods of calibration and validation, respectively, indicating a strong model performance. We analyzed four scenarios that examined different levels of deforestation and climate change. Our results suggest that deforestation and climate change could increase surface runoff by 18 mm, while groundwater recharge could vary between declines of −20 mm and increases of 120 mm. These changes could amplify streamflow variability, affect its dynamics, intensify flood risks, and reduce water availability during dry periods, leading to significant risks for the hydrology of Amazonian watersheds and human water supply. This, in turn, could profoundly impact the region’s megadiverse flora and fauna, which directly depend on balanced streamflow in the watersheds. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=30471 |
| Rufino, P.R., Gücker, B., Volk, M., Strauch, M., da Silva Cardozo, F., Boëchat, I.G., Faramarzi, M., Pereira, G. (2025): Modeling the nexus of climate change and deforestation: implications for the blue water resources of the Jari River, Amazonia Water 17 (5), art. 660 10.3390/w17050660 |
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