Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110996 |
Lizenz  |
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| Titel (primär) | Supporting conservation planning in a national biodiversity hotspot – Projecting species composition across a groundwater level gradient using a demographic forest model |
| Autor | Elles, L.; Boyce, J.; Henkel, S.
; Kasperidus, H.D.; Scholz, M.
; Schorn, M.E.; Vieweg, M.
; Wirth, C.; Rüger, N. |
| Quelle | Ecological Modelling |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2025 |
| Department | NSF; BioP |
| Band/Volume | 501 |
| Seite von | art. 110996 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0304380024003843-mmc1.docx |
| Keywords | Alluvial forest; Groundwater table; Oak regeneration; PPA model; Quercus robur; Re-vitalization measures |
| Abstract | The
Leipzig floodplain forest is a biodiversity hotspot of national
significance. However, it is an urban forest heavily impacted by human
activities, including the alteration of the hydrological regime
preventing floods and leading to a lower groundwater level. In parts of
the Leipzig Floodplain Forest, the restoration of a near-natural
hydrological regime with regular floods and a raise of the groundwater
level is considered. However, it is unclear whether raising the
groundwater level in particular would ensure the long-term conservation
of typical floodplain tree species such as European ash (Fraxinus excelsior) and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur),
which are considered key species for biodiversity conservation. To
investigate this question, we quantified the relationships between
groundwater table distance and the growth, mortality, and recruitment
rates for eight common tree species in the Leipzig Floodplain Forest
using forest inventory data from 60 plots and a spatial groundwater
model. Based on these relationships, we simulated the long-term dynamics
of species composition with and without a raise of the groundwater
table using the Perfect Plasticity Approximation (PPA) forest model. Under current groundwater conditions, the model projected a substantial decline of the typical floodplain species ash and oak over 100 years. Field maple (A. campestre) and hornbeam (Carpinus betulus) benefited from this decline, as did the less flood-tolerant Norway maple (A. platanoides) on dry sites. When a raise of the groundwater level was simulated, ash and oak continued to decline. However, A. platanoides, which is not a typical floodplain forest species, was projected to be inhibited by a raise of the groundwater level. These results suggest that a raise of the groundwater table alone does not lead to the conservation of ash and oak, and hence the rich biodiversity associated with them. The study illustrates how ecological modeling can support the evaluation of biodiversity conservation strategies and provide the scientific basis for the successful transformation of this unique ecosystem towards a self-sustained biodiversity-rich urban forest. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=30182 |
| Elles, L., Boyce, J., Henkel, S., Kasperidus, H.D., Scholz, M., Schorn, M.E., Vieweg, M., Wirth, C., Rüger, N. (2025): Supporting conservation planning in a national biodiversity hotspot – Projecting species composition across a groundwater level gradient using a demographic forest model Ecol. Model. 501 , art. 110996 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110996 |
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