Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.5194/nhess-24-4237-2024 |
Lizenz  |
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| Titel (primär) | Exploring drought hazard, vulnerability, and related impacts on agriculture in Brandenburg |
| Autor | Brill, F.; Lima Alencar, P.H.; Zhang, H.; Boeing, F.
; Hüttel, S.; Lakes, T. |
| Quelle | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2024 |
| Department | CHS |
| Band/Volume | 24 |
| Heft | 12 |
| Seite von | 4237 |
| Seite bis | 4265 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Daten-/Softwarelinks | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13373271 |
| Abstract |
Adaptation to an increasingly dry regional
climate requires spatially explicit information about current and future risks.
Existing drought risk studies often rely on expert-weighted composite
indicators, while empirical evidence on impact-relevant factors is still scarce.
The aim of this study is to investigate to what extent hazard and vulnerability
indicators can explain observed agricultural drought impacts via data-driven
methods. We focus on the German federal state of Brandenburg, 2013–2022,
including several consecutive drought years. As impact indicators we use
thermal–spectral anomalies (land surface temperature (LST) and the normalized
difference vegetation index (NDVI)) on the field level, and empirical yield
gaps from reported statistics on the county level. Empirical associations to
the impact indicators on both spatial levels are compared. Extreme gradient
boosting (XGBoost) models explain up to about 60 % of the variance in the yield
gap data (best R2 = 0.62). Model performance is more stable for the
drought years and when using all crops for training rather than individual
crops. Meteorological drought in June and soil quality are selected as the
strongest impact-relevant factors. Rye is empirically found to be less
vulnerable to drought than wheat, even on poorer soils. LST NDVI only weakly
relates to our empirical yield gaps. We recommend comparing different impact
indicators on multiple scales to proceed with the development of empirically
grounded risk maps. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=30056 |
| Brill, F., Lima Alencar, P.H., Zhang, H., Boeing, F., Hüttel, S., Lakes, T. (2024): Exploring drought hazard, vulnerability, and related impacts on agriculture in Brandenburg Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 24 (12), 4237 - 4265 10.5194/nhess-24-4237-2024 |
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