Bioenergy plays a crucial role in Germany’s renewable energy supply of 513 TWh in 2023. It contributes 254 TWh for heating, fuels, and electricity. The German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) guarantees feed-in tariffs for electricity for 20 years. For many bioenergy plants, the feed-in tariff will expire in the coming years. The latest EEG of 2023 offers tenders, which are also open to existing plants to extend their operation for 10 years, but with lower subsidies. The fuel and heating markets also offer business opportunities that influence the portfolio dynamics of the German power sector.

We use an agent-based modelling approach to investigate the future development of the bioenergy plant portfolio under scenarios for different framework conditions. These include a number of business‑as‑usual cases, as well as 5 additional scenarios for the assessment of different policy measures.

We find that the current bioenergy portfolio in the German power sector cannot be maintained under the current framework conditions. Depending on the scenario, installed capacity will decline by between one third and one eight. Without appropriate adjustments, e.g. higher tender volumes, and 20 instead of 10 extended years of operation, Germany cannot reach its bioenergy target of 8.4 GW in 2030.