Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Preprints |
| DOI | 10.2139/ssrn.4728661 |
| Titel (primär) | Measuring crop acreage adaptation to changing yields and prices: An empirical analysis for agriculture in Germany |
| Autor | Nagpal, M.; Klassert, C.; Heilemann, J.; Klauer, B.; Gawel, E. |
| Quelle | SSRN |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2024 |
| Department | OEKON |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Abstract | Future impacts of climate change and extreme events on agriculture will critically depend on farmers’ adaptation of crop acreages to changing yields and prices. However, these adaptations are rarely quantified at the country scale. This study presents a metric to measure cropping adaptation using the number of hectares differing from an economically optimal cropping pattern. The economically optimal pattern is operationalized using an econometric mathematical programming approach within the framework of a spatial multi-agent system model. The model simulates profit-maximizing cropping allocation under given economic production conditions while calibrating to observed cropping behavior. By applying our concept to Germany, we find (1) persistent crop acreage changes by 7850 hectares on average per district between 1999 and 2020. (2) Average deviation of 4715 hectares per district from an economically optimal cropping pattern between 1999 and 2020. (3) Crop acreages in any year are more adapted to current prices and yields than in earlier years. (4) Cropping adaptedness in droughts is significantly lower than in non-drought situations. The results highlight the dynamics of cropping adaptation over time and enhance understanding of climate change impacts on cropping areas, offering empirical insights for future policies supporting agriculture adaptation to weather extremes and climate change. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=28853 |
| Nagpal, M., Klassert, C., Heilemann, J., Klauer, B., Gawel, E. (2024): Measuring crop acreage adaptation to changing yields and prices: An empirical analysis for agriculture in Germany SSRN 10.2139/ssrn.4728661 |
|