Details zur Publikation

Kategorie Textpublikation
Referenztyp Zeitschriften
DOI 10.5194/hess-27-4369-2023
Lizenz creative commons licence
Titel (primär) Inferring heavy tails of flood distributions through hydrograph recession analysis
Autor Wang, H.-J.; Merz, R.; Yang, S.; Basso, S.
Quelle Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Erscheinungsjahr 2023
Department ASAM; CATHYD
Band/Volume 27
Heft 24
Seite von 4369
Seite bis 4384
Sprache englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Abstract Floods are often disastrous due to underestimation of the magnitude of rare events. Underestimation commonly happens when the magnitudes of floods follow a heavy-tailed distribution, but this behavior is not recognized and thus neglected for flood hazard assessment. In fact, identifying heavy-tailed flood behavior is challenging because of limited data records and the lack of physical support for currently used indices. We address these issues by deriving a new index of heavy-tailed flood behavior from a physically based description of streamflow dynamics. The proposed index, which is embodied by the hydrograph recession exponent, enables inferring heavy-tailed flood behavior from daily flow records, even of short length. We test the index in a large set of case studies across Germany encompassing a variety of climatic and physiographic settings. Our findings demonstrate that the new index enables reliable identification of cases with either heavy- or non-heavy-tailed flood behavior from daily flow records. Additionally, the index suitably estimates the severity of tail heaviness and ranks it across cases, achieving robust results even with short data records. The new index addresses the main limitations of currently used metrics, which lack physical support and require long data records to correctly identify tail behaviors, and provides valuable information on the tail behavior of flood distributions and the related flood hazard in river basins using commonly available discharge data.
dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung
Wang, H.-J., Merz, R., Yang, S., Basso, S. (2023):
Inferring heavy tails of flood distributions through hydrograph recession analysis
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 27 (24), 4369 - 4384 10.5194/hess-27-4369-2023