Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100616 |
Lizenz  |
|
| Titel (primär) | Human influences on spatially compounding flooding and heatwave events in China and future increasing risks |
| Autor | Qian, C.; Ye, Y.; Bevacqua, E.
; Zscheischler, J.
|
| Quelle | Weather and Climate Extremes |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2023 |
| Department | CHS |
| Band/Volume | 42 |
| Seite von | art. 100616 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
| Supplements | https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2212094723000695-mmc1.docx |
| Keywords | Spatially compounding event; Extreme event attribution; Human contribution; Storyline approach; Risk-based approach; Carbon neutrality |
| Abstract | Attribution of high-impact weather events to anthropogenic climate change is important for disentangling long-term trends
from natural variability and estimating potential future impacts. Up to this
point, most attribution studies have focused on univariate drivers, despite the
fact that many impacts are related to multiple compounding weather and climate
drivers. For instance, co-occurring climate extremes in neighbouring regions
can lead to very large combined impacts. Yet, attribution of spatially
compounding events with different hazards poses a great challenge. Here, we
present a comprehensive framework for compound event attribution to disentangle
the effects of natural variability and anthropogenic climate change on the event.
Taking the 2020 spatially compounding heavy precipitation and heatwave event in
China as a showcase, we find that the respective dynamic and thermodynamic
contributions to the intensity of this event are 51% (35–67%) and 39% (18–59%),
and anthropogenic climate change has increased the occurrence probability of
similar events at least 10-fold. We estimate that compared to the current
climate, such events will become 10 times and 14 times more likely until the
middle and end of the 21st century, respectively, under a high-emissions
scenario. This increase in likelihood can be substantially reduced (to seven
times more likely) under a low-emissions scenario. Our study demonstrates the
effect of anthropogenic climate change on high-impact compound extreme events
and highlights the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=28084 |
| Qian, C., Ye, Y., Bevacqua, E., Zscheischler, J. (2023): Human influences on spatially compounding flooding and heatwave events in China and future increasing risks Weather Clim. Extremes 42 , art. 100616 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100616 |
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