Details zur Publikation

Kategorie Textpublikation
Referenztyp Zeitschriften
DOI 10.1098/rsif.2024.0301
Lizenz creative commons licence
Titel (primär) A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations
Autor Calabrese, J.M.; Schüler, L.; Fu, X.; Gawel, E.; Zozmann, H.; Bumberger, J. ORCID logo ; Quaas, M.; Wolf, G.; Attinger, S.
Quelle Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Erscheinungsjahr 2024
Department OEKON; OESA; CHS; MET
Band/Volume 21
Heft 218
Seite von art. 20240301
Sprache englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Daten-/Softwarelinks https://doi.org/10.14278/rodare.2467
https://doi.org/10.14278/rodare.2482
Supplements https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.7439197
Keywords COVID-19; non-pharmaceutical intervention; modelling; epidemiological; behavioural; macroeconomic
Abstract Comparing COVID-19 response strategies across nations is a key step in preparing for future pandemics. Conventional comparisons, which rank individual non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) effects, are limited by: (i) a focus on epidemiological outcomes; (ii) NPIs typically being applied as packages of interventions; and (iii) different political, economic and social conditions among nations. Here, we develop a coupled epidemiological–behavioural–macroeconomic model that can transfer NPI effects from a reference nation to a focal nation. This approach quantifies epidemiological, behavioural and economic outcomes while accounting for both packaged NPIs and differing conditions among nations. As a first proof of concept, we take Germany as our focal nation during Spring 2020, and New Zealand and Switzerland as reference nations with contrasting NPI strategies. Our results suggest that, while New Zealand’s more aggressive strategy would have yielded modest epidemiological gains in Germany, it would have resulted in substantially higher economic costs while dramatically reducing social contacts. In contrast, Switzerland’s more lenient strategy would have prolonged the first wave in Germany, but would also have increased relative costs. More generally, these findings indicate that our approach can provide novel, multifaceted insights on the efficacy of pandemic response strategies, and therefore merits further exploration and development.
dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=27931
Calabrese, J.M., Schüler, L., Fu, X., Gawel, E., Zozmann, H., Bumberger, J., Quaas, M., Wolf, G., Attinger, S. (2024):
A novel, scenario-based approach to comparing non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies across nations
J. R. Soc. Interface 21 (218), art. 20240301 10.1098/rsif.2024.0301