Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Buchkapitel |
| DOI | 10.2495/AIR960471 |
| Titel (primär) | Ozone data analyses to develop an immediate warning system |
| Titel (sekundär) | Air pollution IV: Monitoring, simulation and control |
| Autor | Schlink, U.
; Herbarth, O.; Richter, M. |
| Herausgeber | Caussade, B.; Power, H.; Brebbia, C.A. |
| Quelle | WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 1996 |
| Department | SUSOZ; EXPOEPID |
| Band/Volume | 8 |
| Seite von | 465 |
| Seite bis | 474 |
| UFZ Bestand | Leipzig, Bibliothek, Hauptlesesaal, 00452649, 504.3.054 Air 11-0965 |
| Abstract | A method is proposed for short-term ambient ozone prediction. The basic
assumption is that ozone concentration profiles can be implied from
preceeding parameters, the predictors. For this purpose, certain properties
have to be identified during the time period prior to the forecasting point in
order to calculate the probability that the threshold of 0.18 mg/nf ozone will
be exceeded.
Data analyses indicate that ambient ozone time series show periodicities and
autocorrelation that can be used for predictive purposes. On the one hand, the
wanted parameters are suitable features of the measurement recordings as the
Os and the NOz values at the forecasting point. These are the direct predictors. On the other hand, it is possible to fit a time series model to the measured data and to calculate a parameter from this model. The parameter is called prognosticated predictor. For this purpose, an additive component model is used which is based on spectral decomposition. The aim is to develop an algorithm for immediate ozone warning that can be implemented on a computer. It starts with an alert at a certain defined limit of ozone concentration that divides all forecasting situations into situations below the threshold or above, the latter indicating the critical smog situation. The application of the found predictors yield a probability of exceeding the threshold within the next 12 hours. The paper further discusses the prediction certainty in detail and compares this to other forecasting methods. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=27644 |
| Schlink, U., Herbarth, O., Richter, M. (1996): Ozone data analyses to develop an immediate warning system In: Caussade, B., Power, H., Brebbia, C.A. (eds.) Air pollution IV: Monitoring, simulation and control WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment 8 WIT Press, Southampton, p. 465 - 474 10.2495/AIR960471 |
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