Details zur Publikation |
| Kategorie | Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp | Tagungsbeiträge |
| Titel (primär) | Explaining disease persistence by combining epidemiological and ecological modelling |
| Titel (sekundär) | Proceedings of the 11th Symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE 11), Cairns, Australia, 6-11 August 2006 |
| Autor | Kramer-Schadt, S.; Fernández, N.; Thulke, H.-H.
|
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2006 |
| Department | OESA |
| Seite von | T4-5.3.3 |
| Sprache | englisch |
| Abstract | Classical Swine Fever (CSF) is a viral disease which has recently caused very serious economic losses in the European Union (EU). CSF in wild boar is thought to be the main factor for CSF outbreaks in domestic pigs due to direct or indirect contact in areas of extensive pig keeping. We developed an individual-based, spatially-explicit simulation model that shows under which conditions the disease can persist and that provides a tool for systematic exploration of efficient control and vaccination regimes. In this model, we combine life history of wild boar and the CSF dynamics to systematically investigate the factors driving disease persistence. The model is coupled with a landscape map consisting of suitable habitat with variable boar densities. With the model, we tested the common hypotheses for explaining disease persistence. We used a general linear model to analyse simulation data. The strongest effect was found for low a virulent virus, i.e. a high proportion of chronically infected animals living for a long time as well as many transiently infected individuals. We used CORINE land cover data to develop scenarios for real landscapes in a region of Northern Germany and evaluated these against actual data on occurrence and spread of CSF during a recent outbreak. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=26967 |
| Kramer-Schadt, S., Fernández, N., Thulke, H.-H. (2006): Explaining disease persistence by combining epidemiological and ecological modelling Proceedings of the 11th Symposium of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE 11), Cairns, Australia, 6-11 August 2006 International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, T4-5.3.3 |
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