Details zur Publikation |
Kategorie | Textpublikation |
Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
DOI | 10.1017/eds.2022.1 |
Lizenz ![]() |
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Titel (primär) | Predicting years with extremely low gross primary production from daily weather data using Convolutional Neural Networks |
Autor | Marcolongo, A.; Vladymyrov, M.; Lienert, S.; Peleg, N.; Haug, S.; Zscheischler, J.
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Quelle | Environmental Data Science |
Erscheinungsjahr | 2022 |
Department | CHS |
Band/Volume | 1 |
Seite von | e2 |
Sprache | englisch |
Topic | T5 Future Landscapes |
Daten-/Softwarelinks | http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5555266 |
Supplements | http://doi.org/10.1017/eds.2022.1 |
Keywords | Carbon cycle; Convolutional Neural Networks; extreme events; extreme impacts |
Abstract |
Understanding the meteorological drivers of extreme impacts
in social or environmental systems is important to better quantify current and
project future climate risks. Impacts are typically an aggregated response to
many different interacting drivers at various temporal scales, rendering such
driver identification a challenging task. Machine learning–based approaches,
such as deep neural networks, may be able to address this task but require
large training datasets. Here, we explore the ability of Convolutional Neural
Networks (CNNs) to predict years with extremely low gross primary production
(GPP) from daily weather data in three different vegetation types. To
circumvent data limitations in observations, we simulate 100,000 years of daily
weather with a weather generator for three different geographical sites and
subsequently simulate vegetation dynamics with a complex vegetation model. For
each resulting vegetation distribution, we then train two different CNNs to
classify daily weather data (temperature, precipitation, and radiation) into
years with extremely low GPP and normal years. Overall, prediction accuracy is
very good if the monthly or yearly GPP values are used as an intermediate
training target (area under the precision-recall curve AUC |
dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=26224 |
Marcolongo, A., Vladymyrov, M., Lienert, S., Peleg, N., Haug, S., Zscheischler, J. (2022): Predicting years with extremely low gross primary production from daily weather data using Convolutional Neural Networks Environ. Data Sci. 1 , e2 10.1017/eds.2022.1 |