Details zur Publikation

Kategorie Textpublikation
Referenztyp Zeitschriften
DOI 10.1016/j.cities.2022.104162
Lizenz creative commons licence
Titel (primär) COVID-19 as a game-changer? The impact of the pandemic on urban trajectories
Autor Wolff, M.; Mykhnenko, V.
Quelle Cities
Erscheinungsjahr 2023
Department SUSOZ
Band/Volume 134
Seite von art. 104162
Sprache englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Supplements https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0264275122006011-mmc1.docx
Keywords Urban trajectories; COVID-19; Pandemic shock; European cities; Comparison
Abstract Will the COVID-19 pandemic interrupt the recent European urbanization trends – and if so – what is the magnitude of this sudden shock, and how deaths, births, and net migration contribute to this disruption? Until now, most discussions on the topic have circled either around the anecdotal evidence of city center decline, or contrarian speculations about residential inertia and the forthcoming business-as-usual. Bringing clarity to the uncertainty and confusion surrounding COVID-19, this paper seeks to detect overarching patterns in and the magnitude of its sudden shock to long-term urban trajectories, understood as a reversal of the pre-pandemic population development trend, across European cities in the early 2020s. It reveals that during the first year of COVID-19, population growth in European cities significantly slowed down to −0.3 % per annum, with 28 % of all European cities having experienced a U-turn from population growth to loss. Out-migration was the main driver of such rapid urban shrinkage, while excess mortality associated with COVID-19 has also contributed to population loss in several European city-regions; some, especially, smaller cities suffered from a significant drop in birth rates. Based on the factorial, hierarchical, and temporal dimensions of the COVID-19 crisis, the paper provides a plausible forecast about the future of Europe's post-coronavirus city.
dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=26027
Wolff, M., Mykhnenko, V. (2023):
COVID-19 as a game-changer? The impact of the pandemic on urban trajectories
Cities 134 , art. 104162 10.1016/j.cities.2022.104162