Details zur Publikation

Kategorie Textpublikation
Referenztyp Zeitschriften
DOI 10.1111/risa.14097
Volltext Shareable Link
Titel (primär) Framework for multirisk climate scenarios across system receptors with application to the Metropolitan City of Venice
Autor Sambo, B.; Bonato, M.; Sperotto, A.; Torresan, S.; Furlan, E.; Lambert, J.H.; Linkov, I.; Critto, A.
Quelle Risk Analysis
Erscheinungsjahr 2023
Department CLE
Band/Volume 43
Heft 11
Seite von 2241
Seite bis 2261
Sprache englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Keywords climate change; coastal resilience; environmental receptors; hybrid threats; infrastructure receptors; priority setting; risk communication; risk management
Abstract Climate change influences the frequency of extreme events that affect both human and natural systems. It requires systemic climate change adaptation to address the complexity of risks across multiple domains and tackle the uncertainties of future scenarios. This paper introduces a multirisk analysis of climate hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk severity, specifically designed to hotspot geographic locations and prioritize system receptors that are affected by climate-related extremes. The analysis is demonstrated for the Metropolitan City of Venice. Representative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of climate threats (i.e., storm surges, pluvial flood, heat waves, and drought) are selected and represented by projections of Regional Climate Models for a 30-year period (2021–2050). A sample of results is as follows. First, an increase in the risk is largely due to drought, pluvial flood, and storm surge, depending on the areas of interest, with the overall situation worsening under the RCP8.5 scenario. Second, particular locations have colocated vulnerable receptors at higher risk, concentrated in the urban centers (e.g., housing, railways, roads) and along the coast (e.g., beaches, wetlands, primary sector). Third, risk communication of potential environmental and socio-economic losses via the multirisk maps is useful to stakeholders and public administration. Fourth, the multirisk maps recommend priorities for future investigation and risk management, such as collection of sensor data, elaboration of mitigations, and adaptation plans at hotspot locations.
dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung
Sambo, B., Bonato, M., Sperotto, A., Torresan, S., Furlan, E., Lambert, J.H., Linkov, I., Critto, A. (2023):
Framework for multirisk climate scenarios across system receptors with application to the Metropolitan City of Venice
Risk Anal. 43 (11), 2241 - 2261 10.1111/risa.14097