Details zur Publikation

Kategorie Textpublikation
Referenztyp Zeitschriften
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021
Lizenz creative commons licence
Titel (primär) A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest
Autor Scheuer, S.; Haase, D.; Haase, A.; Wolff, M.; Wellmann, T.
Quelle Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Erscheinungsjahr 2021
Department CLE; SUSOZ
Band/Volume 21
Heft 1
Seite von 203
Seite bis 217
Sprache englisch
Topic T5 Future Landscapes
Abstract The most common approach to assessing natural hazard risk is investigating the willingness to pay in the presence or absence of such risk. In this work, we propose a new, machine-learning-based, indirect approach to the problem, i.e. through residential-choice modelling. Especially in urban environments, exposure and vulnerability are highly dynamic risk components, both being shaped by a complex and continuous reorganization and redistribution of assets within the urban space, including the (re-)location of urban dwellers. By modelling residential-choice behaviour in the city of Leipzig, Germany, we seek to examine how exposure and vulnerabilities are shaped by the residential-location-choice process. The proposed approach reveals hot spots and cold spots of residential choice for distinct socioeconomic groups exhibiting heterogeneous preferences. We discuss the relationship between observed patterns and disaster risk through the lens of exposure and vulnerability, as well as links to urban planning, and explore how the proposed methodology may contribute to predicting future trends in exposure, vulnerability, and risk through this analytical focus. Avenues for future research include the operational strengthening of these linkages for more effective disaster risk management.
dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=24239
Scheuer, S., Haase, D., Haase, A., Wolff, M., Wellmann, T. (2021):
A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 21 (1), 203 - 217 10.5194/nhess-21-203-2021