Details zur Publikation |
| Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
| DOI / URL | Link |
| Titel (primär) | A novel tool to assess the effect of intraspecific spatial niche variation on species distribution shifts under climate change |
| Autor | Martin, Y.; Van Dyck, H.; Legendre, P.; Settele, J.; Schweiger, O.; Harpke, A.; Wiemers, M.; Ameztegui, A.; Titeux, N.; |
| Journal / Serie | Global Ecology and Biogeography |
| Erscheinungsjahr | 2020 |
| Department | BZF; iDiv; |
| Band/Volume | 29 |
| Heft | 3 |
| Sprache | englisch; |
| POF III (gesamt) | T11; |
| Supplements | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fgeb.13036&file=geb13036-sup-0001-AppendixS1.docx https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fgeb.13036&file=geb13036-sup-0002-AppendixS2.docx https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fgeb.13036&file=geb13036-sup-0003-AppendixS3.docx https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fgeb.13036&file=geb13036-sup-0004-AppendixS4.docx |
| Keywords | butterflies; climate change; data partitioning; dispersal; cological niche models; local adaptation; model aggregation; niche dynamics; range shift; species distribution models |
| Abstract |
Niche‐based models often ignore spatial variation in
the climatic niche of a species across its occupied range and the
related variation in the response to changing climate conditions. This
assumption may lead to inaccurate predictions of species distribution
shifts under climate change. Models have been developed to address this
issue, but most of them depend upon prior knowledge on evolutionary
lineages, phenotypic traits or ecological processes underlying local
adaptation or adaptive plasticity. As such information is often lacking,
these models are not frequently used to predict distribution shifts for
many species. This limits our ability to explore general patterns of
change across species. Here, we propose a modelling framework that can be
applied across a large sample of species to assess their distribution
shifts under future climate while exploring the effect of intraspecific
spatial variation in the response to climate conditions. The proposed
approach does not require a detailed understanding of the processes
underlying such variation. The geographical distribution of a species is
split into spatial subsets along the gradient of occupied climate
conditions. These subsets are considered as proxies for intraspecific
spatial niche variation. Local models are built with each subset and
their predictions are assembled across the study area under different
dispersal assumptions. Using European butterflies as an example, we show
that this approach can be used to explore the uncertainty about
predicted distribution shifts arising from intraspecific spatial
variation in sensitivity and response to changing climate conditions. Our modelling approach is not intended to replace
advanced modelling methods based on species‐specific knowledge of
ecological and evolutionary processes, but it is useful as an
exploratory tool to detect species for which detailed information on
intraspecific responses to climate conditions is likely to make a
difference for prediction of future distribution shifts. |
| ID | 22443 |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=22443 |
| Martin, Y., Van Dyck, H., Legendre, P., Settele, J., Schweiger, O., Harpke, A., Wiemers, M., Ameztegui, A., Titeux, N. (2020): A novel tool to assess the effect of intraspecific spatial niche variation on species distribution shifts under climate change Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 29 (3), 590 - 602 |
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