Details zur Publikation |
Kategorie | Textpublikation |
Referenztyp | Zeitschriften |
DOI | 10.1016/j.envsci.2018.12.009 |
Volltext | Autorenversion |
Titel (primär) | Combining policy analyses, exploratory scenarios, and integrated modelling to assess land use policy options |
Autor | Hauck, J.; Schleyer, C.; Priess, J.A.; Veerkamp, C.J.; Dunford, R.; Alkemade, G.; Berry, P.; Primmer, E.; Kok, M.; Young, J.; Haines-Young, R.; Dick, J.; Harrison, P.A.; Bela, G.; Vadineanu, A.; Görg, C. |
Quelle | Environmental Science & Policy |
Erscheinungsjahr | 2019 |
Department | CLE; UPOL |
Band/Volume | 94 |
Seite von | 202 |
Seite bis | 210 |
Sprache | englisch |
Keywords | Policy analysis; Scenario analysis; Integrated assessment model; IMAGE-GLOBIO; CLIMSAVE IAP |
Abstract | Scenario-based approaches provide decision
makers with accessible storylines of potential future changes. The parameterisation
of such storylines as input variables for integrated assessment models allows
using models as a test bed for assessing the effects of alternative land use
policy options in different scenarios. However, the potential of this kind of
policy-screening analysis can be further improved by assessing the
institutional compatibility of the policy options under review. The aim of this
paper is to explore the added value of combining institutions-oriented policy
analyses with scenario-modelling approaches for improved assessments of EU land
use policy options. We describe an expert-based, stepwise process to combine
four scenario storylines and two integrated assessment model approaches
(CLIMSAVE & IMAGE-GLOBIO) with a procedure for institutional compatibility
assessment. Among the subsidies we assessed were those for technology-driven
intensification of agricultural production, which would contribute to
decreasing demand for cropland across a range of scenarios. In regionalised
policy designs,they also contribute to ecological effectiveness, and higher
costs of governing. Subsidies to promote biomass production can have negative
effects on ecosystems including land conversion, conversion of grassland into
cropland as well as conversion of natural forests into managed forests. These
effects can to some extent be mitigated by careful policy design which
considers the institutional context and features cross-sectoral coordination.
An integrated Ecosystem Services Framework policy could accommodate
regionalised policy designs and cross-sectoral coordination, however, it can
operate only under specific circumstances and needs particular efforts. Rural
development approaches are another alternative which feature expansion of
cropland by means of a large-scale, bottom-up transformation based on voluntary
changes in behaviour, flexibility, participation, and local and regional
collaboration. Apart from a vast number of interdisciplinary lessons learned,
we also gained insights from the sciencepolicy interface. A weak EU appeared as
a plausible scenario from a scientific perspective, given the current political
environment. However, it appreaded to be unacceptable at EU level policy
making. We decided to maintain scientific independence and looked at policy
options also in the context of a weak EU yielding environmentally beneficial opportunities
for regional decision making at the expense of relevance of our scenarios to EU
level policy makers.
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dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung | https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=21466 |
Hauck, J., Schleyer, C., Priess, J.A., Veerkamp, C.J., Dunford, R., Alkemade, G., Berry, P., Primmer, E., Kok, M., Young, J., Haines-Young, R., Dick, J., Harrison, P.A., Bela, G., Vadineanu, A., Görg, C. (2019): Combining policy analyses, exploratory scenarios, and integrated modelling to assess land use policy options Environ. Sci. Policy 94 , 202 - 210 10.1016/j.envsci.2018.12.009 |