| Kategorie |
Textpublikation |
| Referenztyp |
Zeitschriften |
| DOI |
10.1111/ddi.12634
|
| Titel (primär) |
The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change |
| Autor |
Titeux, N.; Maes, D.; Van Daele, T.; Onkelinx, T.; Heikkinen, R.K.; Romo, H.; García-Barros, E.; Munguira, M.L.; Thuiller, W.; van Swaay, C.A.M.; Schweiger, O.; Settele, J.; Harpke, A.; Wiemers, M.
; Brotons, L.; Luoto, M. |
| Quelle |
Diversity and Distributions |
| Erscheinungsjahr |
2017 |
| Department |
BZF; iDiv |
| Band/Volume |
23 |
| Heft |
12 |
| Seite von |
1393 |
| Seite bis |
1407 |
| Sprache |
englisch |
| Supplements |
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fddi.12634&attachmentId=2173777159
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fddi.12634&attachmentId=2173777160
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fddi.12634&attachmentId=2173777161
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fddi.12634&attachmentId=2173777162
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1111%2Fddi.12634&attachmentId=2173777163 |
| Keywords |
bioclimatic models; butterflies; climate envelopes; climatic niche; local approaches; species distribution modelling |
| UFZ Querschnittsthemen |
RU1; |
| Abstract |
AimSpecies
distribution models built with geographically restricted data often
fail to capture the full range of conditions experienced by species
across their entire distribution area. Using such models to predict
distribution shifts under future environmental change may, therefore,
produce biased projections. However, restricted-scale models have the
potential to include a larger sample of taxa for which distribution data
are available and to provide finer-resolution projections that are
better applied to conservation planning than the forecasts of
broad-scale models. We examine the circumstances under which the
projected shifts in species richness patterns derived from
restricted-scale and broad-scale models are most likely to be similar. MethodsThe
distribution of butterflies in Finland, Belgium/Netherlands and Spain
was modelled based on restricted-scale (local) and broad-scale
(continental) distribution and climate data. Both types of models were
projected under future climate change scenarios to assess potential
changes in species richness. ResultsIn
Finland, species richness was projected to increase strongly based on
restricted-scale models and to decrease slightly with broad-scale
models. In Belgium/Netherlands, restricted-scale models projected a
larger decrease in richness than broad-scale models. In Spain, both
models projected a slight decrease in richness. We obtained similar
projections based on restricted-scale and broad-scale models only in
Spain because the climatic conditions available here covered the warm
part of the distributions of butterflies better than in Finland and
Belgium/Netherlands. Main conclusionsRestricted-scale
models that fail to capture the warm part of species distributions
produce biased estimates of future changes in species richness when
projected under climatic conditions with no modern analogue in the study
area. We recommend the use of distribution data beyond the boundaries
of the study area to capture the part of the species response curves
reflecting the climatic conditions that will prevail within that area in
the future. |
| dauerhafte UFZ-Verlinkung |
https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=19246 |
Titeux, N., Maes, D., Van Daele, T., Onkelinx, T., Heikkinen, R.K., Romo, H., García-Barros, E., Munguira, M.L., Thuiller, W., van Swaay, C.A.M., Schweiger, O., Settele, J., Harpke, A., Wiemers, M., Brotons, L., Luoto, M. (2017):
The need for large-scale distribution data to estimate regional changes in species richness under future climate change
Divers. Distrib. 23 (12), 1393 - 1407 10.1111/ddi.12634 |
