Details zur Publikation

Kategorie Textpublikation
Referenztyp Zeitschriften
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359
Titel (primär) Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide - a synthesis
Autor Krysanova, V.; Vetter, T.; Eisner, S.; Huang, S.; Pechlivanidis, I.G.; Strauch, M. ORCID logo ; Gelfan, A.; Kumar, R. ORCID logo ; Aich, V.; Arheimer, B.; Chamorro, A.; van Griensven, A.; Kundu, D.; Lobanova, A.; Mishra, V.; Plötner, S.; Reinhardt, J.; Seidou, O.; Wang, X.; Wortmann, M.; Zeng, X.; Hattermann, F.F.
Quelle Environmental Research Letters
Erscheinungsjahr 2017
Department CLE; CHS
Band/Volume 12
Heft 10
Seite von art. 105002
Sprache englisch
UFZ Querschnittsthemen RU5;
Abstract An intercomparison of climate change impacts projected by nine regional-scale hydrological models for 12 large river basins on all continents was performed, and sources of uncertainty quantified in the framework of the ISIMIP project. The models ECOMAG, HBV, HYMOD, HYPE, mHM, SWAT, SWIM, VIC and WaterGAP3 were applied in the following basins: Rhine and Tagus in Europe, Niger and Blue Nile in Africa, Ganges, Lena, Upper Yellow and Upper Yangtze in Asia, Upper Mississippi, MacKenzie and Upper Amazon in America, and Darling in Australia. The model calibration/validation was done using WATCH climate data for 1971-2000. The performance, evaluated with 14 criteria, is mostly satisfactory, except for the low flow. Climate impacts were analyzed using projections from five GCMs under four RCPs. Trends in the period 2070 – 2099 in relation to the reference period 1975-2004 were evaluated for three variables: the long-term mean annual flow and high and low flow percentiles Q10 and Q90, as well as for flows in three months high- and low-flow periods denoted as HF and LF. For three river basins: Lena, MacKenzie and Tagus strong trends in all five variables were found (except for Q10 in MacKenzie); trends with moderate certainty for three to five variables were confirmed for Rhine, Ganges and Mississippi; and increases in HF and LF were found for Amazon, Yangtze and Yellow. The analysis of projected streamflow seasonality demonstrated increasing streamflow volumes during the high-flow period in four basins influenced by monsoonal precipitation (Ganges, Upper Amazon, Upper Yangtze and Upper Yellow), an amplification of the snowmelt flood peaks in the Lena and MacKenzie, and a substantial decrease of discharge in the Tagus (all months). The overall fractions of uncertainty in the multi-model ensemble applied for all basins were 57% for GCMs, 27% for RCPs, and 16% for hydrological models.
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Krysanova, V., Vetter, T., Eisner, S., Huang, S., Pechlivanidis, I.G., Strauch, M., Gelfan, A., Kumar, R., Aich, V., Arheimer, B., Chamorro, A., van Griensven, A., Kundu, D., Lobanova, A., Mishra, V., Plötner, S., Reinhardt, J., Seidou, O., Wang, X., Wortmann, M., Zeng, X., Hattermann, F.F. (2017):
Intercomparison of regional-scale hydrological models and climate change impacts projected for 12 large river basins worldwide - a synthesis
Environ. Res. Lett. 12 (10), art. 105002 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8359