CLIMALERT − Methods and Results: Telephone interviews

A telephone survey was conducted in January and February 2018 with employees of farmers' associations and authorities. The aim of the survey was to obtain an overview of the relevant weather information needed and used by farms in central Germany.

Approximately 50 institutions were contacted for the survey: on the one hand all regional and regional farmers' associations in Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia and on the other authorities (e.g. Saxon State Office for Environment, Agriculture and Geology − LfULG, German Weather Service − DWD) to deal with the topics of weather as well as climate forecasts related to agriculture. Telephone interviews were conducted with 28 institutions. We found the method of telephone interviews effective albeit time consuming. We invested a large amount of time identifying stakeholders, writing letters informing them of our intention to call them, calling, making appointments to conduct the interviews, conducting the interviews and analysing the results. However, the survey provided us with a broad overview of the influence that weather-related information has on decisions related to agricultural processes. The answers to the five most important questions are briefly outlined below.

Results

(1) Which aspects influence the decisions related to agricultural practices / management?

Decision-making processes related to agricultural practices/management are determined by many factors. In any case, the legal requirements/directives and developments on the financial market (as well as financial subsidies) were found to have the strongest influence on the decision-making processes. In addition, the following five aspects were also reported as being relevant: the company's structure/technical equipment, the working climate (e.g. employee commitment, collegial cooperation), consumer confidence in agricultural products, and availability of labour. At the same time, respondents' answers made it clear that weather forecasts and other observation data (for example, air humidity and soil moisture) play a crucial role in decision-making processes. However, these factors are largely taken as a given rather than being something that is inflicted on them as a result of external human decision (e.g. legislation and the financial market).

(2) What weather information / forecasts are the most important for farmers?

Respondents most often cited precipitation forecasts (including snow), temperature, wind, hours of sunshine, humidity, and severe weather (such as local hailstorms) as being the most important weather-related information for their daily practices. Also important are information on soil temperature / soil frost and soil moisture.

(3) Which weather forecasts (providers) do farmers use?

Members of the farmers’ associations reported that farmers use a variety of different forecasts. In particular, digital options (for example, apps from “Agricultural Weather”, “Proplanta”, “Weather.com”) play an important role. In addition, agricultural companies inform themselves about the “Wetterfax” from the German Weather Service (DWD), about the forecast data of regional weather stations (for example Leipziger Wetterdienst, weather report of the Thuringian State Institute) and / or about their own weather stations. However, more traditional forms of media were also said to play an important role for some famers (e.g. radio, television and newspapers).

(4) What are the advantages or disadvantages of existing weather forecasting systems?

According to the respondents, the advantages of the existing weather forecasting systems are: the reliability of the short-term forecasts (1 − 3 days), the timeliness of the forecasts, the regional scale of the forecasts, the variety of data offered and the rapid availability of the data.

Disadvantages of existing weather forecasting systems are: the weather forecasting systems do not reflect the regional characteristics and the predictions are sometimes too inaccurate, especially in events (e.g. hail) which are very local. Furthermore, predictions that go beyond 3 days lose reliability. Another disadvantage is that forecasts from specialised agricultural suppliers are subject to a fee.

(5) In addition to short-term 1 − 3 day weather forecasts, is a long-term weather forecast (1 − 3 months) also relevant for farmers?

Only five of the 28 respondents answered this question with a clear “no”. They justify their assessment with the uncertainty related to long-term predictions. The majority of respondents answered this question with “yes”. An advantage is seen to be that trends in weather can be detected with the long-term forecasts. However, most “yes” were accompanied by a “but”. Respondents noted that an advantage exists only if the predictions are reliable. Moreover, long-term predictions may present negative side-effects. The knowledge about unfavourable weather trends in the next 1 − 3 months has quite emotional effects for the affected farms.

Summary

The survey has shown that weather information is crucial for the work processes in a farm. Precipitation forecasts are the most important information. The Internet and apps are often used by agricultural workers to provide this information quickly and easily. Furthermore, the survey also showed that not all relevant weather information can be accessed practically and easily, and that the medium and long-term forecasts that go beyond three days show great uncertainties.