WP 3 – Stakeholder involvement and scenario development
Lead: BOKU, participating Agroscope, VU, UPM, UFZ, IfLS
Stakeholder participation is central to TALE in order to take account of the various preferences for biodiversity conservation and ESS supply under current and likely future conditions. It shall i) support the description of current policy objectives, instruments and measures from a stakeholder perspective (see WP1), ii) reveal current and likely future regional to national land use, biodiversity conservation, and ESS objectives of stakeholders to be integrated into the multi-objective optimization approach (WP4), iii) select feasible policy measures to be further analyzed in WP4, iv) support the development of socio-economic and policy scenarios required in WP2 and 4, and v) facilitate dissemination of results from all case studies to guarantee policy support from TALE. Stakeholders will be farmers and foresters as well as representatives of nature conservation organizations, local communities, administration, and policy makers in each regional case study.
WP3 is responsible for coordinating the stakeholder process and for developing stakeholder driven land use and policy scenarios, i.e. participatory scenarios for each case study, which are used to support multi-objective trade-off evaluation of measures to foster ESS supply and biodiversity conservation. The scenarios in TALE follow common storylines that include foreseeable socioeconomic and policy changes based on observed trends in population growth, development of input and output prices, technological development, land use changes (e.g. loss of agricultural land) and agricultural policy reforms to facilitate comparability and transferability of case study results. The storylines are aligned with the shared socio-economic pathways developed for climate change impact assessments to enhance comparability of results and utilize synergies.
The case study teams held stakeholder workshops on land use scenarios in December 2016 and January 2017. It resulted in three to four land use scenarios that describe contrasting development pathways under either land sharing, land sparing or a balanced strategy. The resulting land use scenarios are a result by itself, but will further support modelling efforts in WP2 and WP4.