High-resolution soil moisture forecasts for drought early warning in Germany (Najafi et al., 2026) - Historical soil moisture index (total soil column), calculated from 1975-2024 0 17383

Projekt
POF3 - T53 - From models to predictions - Sub-seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasting System - HS2S
Beschreibung
This dataset contains daily, high-resolution soil moisture index (SMI) data for Germany for the period 1 January 1975–31 December 2024. The dataset was derived from total soil column moisture simulated by the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM).

The SMI expresses the simulated soil moisture at each model grid cell as a quantile of its historical soil moisture distribution for the corresponding time of year. It is dimensionless and ranges from 0 to 1. Low SMI values indicate unusually dry soil moisture conditions, while high values indicate unusually wet conditions. For example, an SMI value of 0.2 corresponds approximately to the 20th percentile, meaning that the simulated soil moisture is lower than about 80% of the values represented by the historical distribution.

The SMI was calculated using the Computational Hydrosystems (CHS) SMI program, based on the methodology implemented at https://git.ufz.de/chs/progs/SMI.

The underlying mHM simulations were forced by gridded meteorological observations from the German Weather Service (DWD). Precipitation forcing was obtained from the HYRAS gridded observational dataset, while the remaining station-based meteorological observations were spatially interpolated to the model grid using external-drift kriging (EDK).

This historical SMI dataset provides the climatological reference for interpreting soil moisture conditions and calculating SMI values in the HS2S forecasting system. It is also used to parameterize the Markov model by estimating historical transitions between SMI drought states. The resulting Markov forecasts represent the expected evolution of soil moisture based on historical soil moisture persistence and provide a reference against which the added value of meteorological forecast forcing can be evaluated.

The dataset supports the analyses presented in the associated manuscript, “High-resolution soil moisture forecasts for drought early warning in Germany.”
DOI
https://doi.org/10.48758/ufz.17383
Zitiervorschlag (APA)
Najafi, H. (2026). High-resolution soil moisture forecasts for drought early warning in Germany (Najafi et al., 2026) - Historical soil moisture index (total soil column), calculated from 1975-2024 [Dataset]. Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research. https://doi.org/10.48758/UFZ.17383
Größe
46,8 GB
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Metadaten Kataloge
Dublin Core
URI
https://www.ufz.de/record/dmp/archive/17383
DOI
10.48758/ufz.17383
Thema
soil moisture index (SMI)
Veröffenlichungsdatum
24.07.2026
Datenart
Datensatz (in einem definierten Format strukturierte Daten)
Datenqualität
qualitätsgesicherte Daten
Datenstatus
bearbeitete Daten
Datenformat
netcdf
Urheber
Najafi, Husain
Herausgeber
Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research
Rechteinhaber
Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research
Hinweis zur Zitation
data are managed by Husain Najafi
Kontakt
husain.najafi@ufz.de
Zeitpunkt oder -bereich der Erzeugung der Daten
22.07.2026
Sprache des Inhalts
Englisch
Zielgruppe
Anyone interested in ensemble soil mositure forecasts of 2025 German drought
Zugriffsrechte
freier Zugriff