Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05810.x
Title (Primary) Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems: how good can predictions really be?
Author Zurell, D.; Jeltsch, F.; Dormann, C.F.; Schröder, B.
Source Titel Ecography
Year 2009
Department CLE
Volume 32
Issue 5
Page From 733
Page To 744
Language englisch
Abstract SDM performance varied for different range dynamics. Prediction accuracies decreased when abrupt range shifts occurred as species were outpaced by the rate of climate change, and increased again when a new equilibrium situation was realised. When ranges contracted, prediction accuracies increased as the absences were predicted well. Far-dispersing species were faster in tracking climate change, and were predicted more accurately by SDMs than short-dispersing species. BRTs mostly outperformed GLMs. The presence of a predator, and the inclusion of its incidence as an environmental predictor, made BRTs and GLMs perform similarly. Results are discussed in light of other studies dealing with effects of ecological traits and processes on SDM performance. Perspectives are given on further advancements of SDMs and for possible interfaces with more mechanistic approaches in order to improve predictions under environmental change.
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=731
Zurell, D., Jeltsch, F., Dormann, C.F., Schröder, B. (2009):
Static species distribution models in dynamically changing systems: how good can predictions really be?
Ecography 32 (5), 733 - 744 10.1111/j.1600-0587.2009.05810.x