Publication Details

Category Text Publication
Reference Category Journals
DOI 10.1038/s41598-020-70901-6
Licence creative commons licence
Title (Primary) Biological responses to extreme weather events are detectable but difficult to formally attribute to anthropogenic climate change
Author Harris, R.M.B.; Loeffler, F.; Rumm, A.; Fischer, C.; Horchler, P.; Scholz, M. ORCID logo ; Foeckler, F.; Henle, K.
Source Titel Scientific Reports
Year 2020
Department NSF; iDiv
Volume 10
Page From art. 14067
Language englisch
Supplements https://static-content.springer.com/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41598-020-70901-6/MediaObjects/41598_2020_70901_MOESM1_ESM.pdf
Abstract As the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods have increased over recent decades, more extreme biological responses are being reported, and there is widespread interest in attributing such responses to anthropogenic climate change. However, the formal detection and attribution of biological responses to climate change is associated with many challenges. We illustrate these challenges with data from the Elbe River floodplain, Germany. Using community turnover and stability indices, we show that responses in plant, carabid and mollusc communities are detectable following extreme events. Community composition and species dominance changed following the extreme flood and summer heatwave of 2002/2003 (all taxa); the 2006 flood and heatwave (molluscs); and after the recurring floods and heatwave of 2010 and the 2013 flood (plants). Nevertheless, our ability to attribute these responses to anthropogenic climate change is limited by high natural variability in climate and biological data; lack of long-term data and replication, and the effects of multiple events. Without better understanding of the mechanisms behind change and the interactions, feedbacks and potentially lagged responses, multiple-driver attribution is unlikely. We discuss whether formal detection and/or attribution is necessary and suggest ways in which understanding of biological responses to extreme events could progress.
Persistent UFZ Identifier https://www.ufz.de/index.php?en=20939&ufzPublicationIdentifier=23442
Harris, R.M.B., Loeffler, F., Rumm, A., Fischer, C., Horchler, P., Scholz, M., Foeckler, F., Henle, K. (2020):
Biological responses to extreme weather events are detectable but difficult to formally attribute to anthropogenic climate change
Sci. Rep. 10 , art. 14067 10.1038/s41598-020-70901-6