Details zur Publikation
|DOI / URL|
|Titel (primär)||Socio-environmental impacts of land use and land cover change at a tropical forest frontier|
|Titel (sekundär)||MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2007|
|Autor||Priess, J.A.; Mimler, M.; Weber, R.; Faust, H.;|
|Herausgeber||Oxley, L.; Kulasiri, D.;|
|Keywords||agriculture, agro-forestry, crop model, crop yields, Indonesia, migration, profit margins, scenario, SITE land-use model, stakeholders|
Land use and land cover change, especially in tropical regions, have received much attention in recent years. Land use dynamics are usually caused by a combination of large scale drivers of change such as global markets or climate, but also region-specific forces like demographic change and regional/local policies. In the case study from Indonesia presented here, forests were replaced by agricultural land and agro-forestry plots. These processes were intimately linked with agricultural intensification and ongoing rural immigration. In this paper we used the integrated land-use model SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environments) to study the dynamics of major land-use and land cover types and quantify selected indicators of change. Analyzing the socio-environmental impacts of the agricultural transition process, we focused on the impact on gross margins of different crops as well as environmental impacts in terms of forest conversion and agricultural expansion. Simultaneously, we analyze the same indicators in a ‘no migration’ scenario to quantify the potential impacts of rural immigration. Results are communicated both to the scientific community and various stakeholders such as local farmers, political leaders and regional authorities.
Immigration into the study region in Central Sulawesi is occurring since the 1970ies, causing a population increase of 60% during the study period 1981 - 2002. Based on demographic trends of rural population, we developed a ‘No Migration’ scenario (NoMig) in which the population increased by 9%. During this period, the spatial extend of agricultural and agro-forestry land, including fallows increased by 47% during the historical period, while the cultivated area inside the Lore Lindu National Park (LLNP) increased by 200%. In the NoMig scenario agriculture expanded by 22% in the entire region, while the cultivated area inside LLNP increased by 70%. The by far largest expansion was observed in cocoa agroforestry (12 fold), followed by coffee, fallows and settlement areas. Notably, the historical expansion of agricultural land used for the dominant staple food paddy rice was very moderate (20%) and even negative in case of the NoMig scenario (- 12%). Since the early 1980ies, the gross margins per capita from agricultural production slowly increased from 1.2 Mio. Rupiah to 2.9 Mio. Rupiah in 2002. The gross margins of the NoMig scenario were generally lower, but followed the same general trend reaching 2.5 Mio. Rupiah in 2002.
Land-use dynamics in the study region are characterized by strong expansion of agricultural and agro-forestry land, and the consumption of natural resources, mainly primary and secondary forests. The livelihood of the rural population clearly improved during the study period, and the introduction of cocoa plantations provided additional economic benefits. The economic achievements are considered unsustainable, because they are based on forest conversion and an increase in unproductive fallow land. Major challenges in Central Sulawesi seem to be (i) to slow down the consumption and conversion of forest resources, and (ii) find means to regulate access to land.
The communication with stakeholders (e.g. dissemination of scientific findings) is facilitated by pathways of communication and mutual trust established during years of cooperation, both of which are considered at least as important as the technical and scientific aspects of integrated modeling. Potential limitations in communication with stakeholders are expected (i) to arise from conflicting interests of different stakeholders (and potentially scientists and stakeholders), (ii) lack of awareness and understanding of the concern and risks perceived by the respective parties, and (iii) a limited set of scenarios and indicators provided by our model.
|Priess, J.A., Mimler, M., Weber, R., Faust, H. (2007):
Socio-environmental impacts of land use and land cover change at a tropical forest frontier
In: Oxley, L., Kulasiri, D. (eds.)
MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2007
p. 349 - 357