The forest forecast spin-off project
We are a dynamic Leipzig-based spin-off initiative of the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, with the mission to bring over 30 years of forest modeling expertise into the hands of forest managers.
Forests currently face unprecedented stress due to environmental change, making it harder than ever for forest managers to take crucial decisions, oftern under considerable uncertainty. Our goal is to minimize this uncertainty by bringing forest forecasts into forest management.
Just like a weather app forecasts rain and storms, we envision an app that delivers precise, real-time data on forests, predicts their growth and estimates the risk of drought damage. And our system even goes beyond forecasts: it allows managers to simulate the impact of upcoming management actions and assess their expected effects on yield and risk. Through it all, we strive for unprecedented accuracy.
What we do differently
Forest modelling and simulation programs have been around for decades, but play a minor role in current-day forest management. We learn from them, but we do things differently.
We take a new modelling approach. Existing forest models either project past observations into the future directly - which fails in times of change - or simulate growth processes in a simplified manner, limiting the overall precision. We take a novel hybrid approach, where we learn inner plant mechanics from available forest data, enabling us to make reliable predictions even in new situations, where data is sparse.
We focus on user-centric design. The best predictions are of little help if they cannot be easily integrated into the workflow of forest managers. Therefore, we consider usability already in the earliest software design stages.
We integrate new data sources. New data sources such as aerial and terresrial LIDAR become increasingly available and yield unprecedented opportunities to improve the accuracy of forest models. Our system is modular by design and built to easily integrate these new data sources and AI components into the core functionality.
We support extensions. Our system’s extendable architecture makes it easy to include forecast components for various ecosystem services such as carbon and water balance and biodiversity facilitation.
About us
We are two researchers from the Department of Ecological Modelling at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig, united by a shared passion for forest science and a commitment to keep our environment in a condition that ensures good quality of life for all.
With extensive experience in environmental and socio-economic modelling, we have been deeply involved in developing the well-established forest model FORMIND, which is widely used in forest research projects around the world.
After years of dedicated work in scientific research, we felt a growing desire to apply our expertise in ways that directly benefit forest stakeholders. This led to the creation of a new spin-off project, aimed at bridging the gap between cutting-edge forest science and practical, real-world applications.
Our profiles
Dr. Gunnar Dreßler is a systems scientist with a strong background in agent-based modelling and biomathematics. His research focusses on understanding dynamics of complex social-ecological systems, particularly uncovering tipping point dynamics and impacts of policy instruments on land-use strategies. He is experienced in building and applying models in various land-use contexts, such as rangelands, agricultural systems and forests. A strong focus of his research lies on adequately representing human decision-making and management in computational models.
Dr. Samuel Fischer is a mathematician with strong background in ecological modelling, software design, and computational statistics. His research focuses on the efficient integration of data into complex ecological models. Prior to his work on forest modelling, he developed methods to predict the spread of animal diseases and invasive species. As one of the current lead developers of the forest model FORMIND, his recent work focuses on developing new approaches to parameterize forest models and to connect them with remote sensing data.
More to come …
… because we are just getting started!
Stay tuned for updates coming soon! =)
Diese UFZ Ausgründungsinitiative wird im Rahmen des hauseigenen Förderprogramms transfun gefördert.